Bond Market Buy Signals

After experiencing a sharp decline in the last ~2 months, bond markets is now consolidating. In fact, today it managed to rally above a critical level. If bonds can hold near this level for the next few days, intermediate trend would turn up.

This decline has resulted in multiple bond indicators turning bullish i.e. sentiment turning so pessimistic that it is now bullish. Three widely followed sentiment indicator readings are given below:

1- Hulbert Sentiment Index:
The blue line below represents bond yields. Bond yields move in the opposite direction to the bond prices. Red line indicates the sentiment towards bonds. At this point, it appears that the sentiment is as negative as we have seen in ~2 years. Therefore, there is a good wall of worry to support a bond rally.

2- Bund Sentiment
Bunds are German bonds. Bunds were among the bonds that went into negative yield territory. While they were negative, everyone was bullish on the future of Bunds. However, very few realized that it was more close to the end of the Bunds rise. On the contrary, right now investors are very bearish on Bunds. This suggests that this a good time to increase exposure to bonds

3- Bond Sentiment NDR indicator
According to NDR services, bond sentiment is now extremely pessimistic, which supports the argument that the Bond decline is over-extended and we should anticipate a rise in Bond prices:

Bond Market Trend
While we are seeing some very pessimistic sentiment readings, these are coming at a time when the Bond market remains in a bull market according to our proprietary Market Classification Model. Therefore, the prudent trade right now would be to add or maintain longs in the bond market.

Keep in mind that bond market has been rallying for over 30 years, and yields have been declining for the same period. This trend will eventually come to an end. The question is whether it has already ended or will end with one for decline.

In either case, bond yields will not go up right away. They will go up if the economy continues to improve and Federal Reserves raises interest rates couple of times. Fed's changes to short-term interest rates does not directly impact the longer-term interest rates because those rates are driven by market expectation.

In the next blog post, we will discuss the bond market structure and both Bull and Bear scenarios. Poor bond market is in no one's favor and the central banks will try their utmost to ensure interest rate rise remains in control. From an investment perspective, we might see 1 or 2 more opportunities to fund big capital purchases at a lower interest rate.

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Bonds Market Analysis and Impact

After a dynamic and super-charged start of 2016, the long-term bond prices, as measured by TLT, are at the same level where they started the year - 120.6 vs 120.7 (shown below).

 
Above chart shows the amazing ascent and first six months and the sharp decline over past 4 months. Today's news is full of negative articles about the bond market rout, and potential consequences.

Bond market is the life blood of modern economies. There is hardly any developed country in the world that is debt free. Countries issue debt/bonds to implement development projects and repay any interest/payments that are due on existing obligations.

United States is a unique case where the government cannot just keep issuing bonds to raise money without any checks and balances. These checks and balances help keep the government debt in control, which supports the dollar and increases confidence among the lenders that they will get their money back.

This check/balance process is known as the debt-ceiling. Without confidence in the system, creditors might start hesitating in purchasing government treasuries, which could lead to higher bond yields, making it more difficult for US to finance future needs.

Orderly, rise and fall of treasury yield is very normal because it is governed by economic realities and Fed's actions. But sudden sharp rise, can be catastrophic for the overall economy. That being said, we are in a long-term downtrend in the bond yields, which will reverse one day in the near future.

Long-term view
In early 1980s, long-term treasuries were yielding 14%. They went as low as 2% in July 2016 - amazing time to refinance or make a big purchase at next to no interest rate.

However, this kind of decline will not last for ever. Typically, there is a ~30 year bond market cycle and right now we are near the bottom of the yield cycle. Following chart shows the yield decline structure.

Now the question is whether this trend has ended or does it have one last decline left in it? 

From a fundamental perspective, it is difficult to rationalize how the inflation can pick-up with oil, gold and other commodities being hit with higher dollar. If dollar rallies, it will pressure inflation and as a result, yields would come down.

Short-term View
From a short-term perspective, bond market has become extremely oversold. The sentiment is conducive to a sharp rally, as investors start to rationalize higher yields through new post-election economic realities. DSI sentiment is also extremely subdued.

Note - Election or no-election, economic realities don't change randomly. Rather, their interpretation changes but in the end everything cancels out in the direction of the primary trend

Following chart shows the near-term structure of the bond market. There are two ways to decipher this structure, but both ways suggest that this is a corrective structure. Below chart shows both the wave counts.

We will continue to monitor the bond market as we approach next month's Fed FOMC meeting. Fed might not raise the rates after an election surprise, which could give a boost to bond market.

Last Word
A collapse of the bond market will be a very bad scenario for investors and the economy. Abrupt rise in interest rates can destroy US abilities to pay existing obligations and could lead to a significant market impact. This impact might start from the US but could quickly spread through out the world. And once such a spiral starts, it is almost impossible to halt it in the middle.

If you are an investor with a substantial portfolio in bonds, you need to carefully watch for trend change in the bond market. Our proprietary Market Classification Model remains in a bull market for Bonds.

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Market Trend Remains Up

Sideways consolidation continued over the last week. The blog wasn't updated because of registration paperwork. We will discuss Investment Advisory registration in one of the upcoming posts.

Markets' sideways action remains intact. Even though in the last couple of days SP500 and US indices saw a relatively sharp decline, it did not impact the overall shape and form of the market.

Market Structure
SP500 is tracing out a diagonal pattern (shown below). One of the criteria of this pattern was to decline below C level, which it did yesterday. Now, the market needs to hold above yesterday's bottom to confirm that this pattern has been completed.

The overall market structure remains very choppy. This choppy action now spans over 4 months, which is a good enough time to correct the market through time. At weekly level this sideways action looks nothing more than a bull flag or pennant formation. And both of these are bullish in nature.

In terms of next market move, there are couple of options and will be determined by how the market participants react to the next rally phase. In either case, the minimum rally requirements would be above July 2016 high or around that level (SP500 = 2190).

Sentiment
Recent decline has also improve sentiment measures to suggest that a more sustainable rally is possible.

Fear/Greed indicator is at levels where it typically signifies a market bottom.

Similar another indicator just generated a buy signal and could mean that the trend is about to turn to the upside.

Market Classification Model:
MCM for stocks continues to be in a bull market. Therefore, the trend remains up and we will soon see a sharp rally. Even with yesterday's sharp decline, our strategy performed well. While SP500 was down 0.72%, we were up 0.20%. Another proprietary model is suggesting a sharp rally in our strategic allocation portfolio. We will see. So far by the grace of almighty, our proprietary portfolio is up ~20% YTD (after 10 months), which SP500 is up ~6%.

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Downtrend Continues

Market resumed its decline in a major way today. More interesting than the decline was the muted reaction from the traders, as VIX did not spike. If fear doesn't spike with declines, it means that we have further decline ahead.

Market rallied last week but got way over-bought in just few days. In fact, a sell signal was generated on Friday. That sell signal resulted in decline yesterday from which the market initially recovered. However, it was too much weight for the market to carry. As a result, it gave way to serious selling today.

We have been maintaining that the stock market's inherent structure changed last year in August, and suggested a move to cash. Proprietary portfolio allocation model allowed us to diversify between bonds and short stocks. This portfolio has been performing very well so far this year (link). It is up +6.7% this year, while SP500 is down 6.7% this year. We will talk about latest results in the next post. Right mow, let's look at the structure of the market.

Nasdaq along with many other indices, is tracing out another head and shoulders pattern. This pattern is larger in magnitude than the prior pattern, and could result in substantial decline.

Over the next few days, market will fill the right shoulder of this pattern. Once right shoulder is filled and market breaks below the neck-line, significant decline can be in the offering.

Head and Shoulders are reversal patterns, and when you see a cluster of these patterns, as shown above, they become even more important. Overall, it means that the trend of the last 7 years has ended and we have entered a bear market. This would mean that the economy will slow down and we might see additional bad news coming from different market segments. Oil was the initial catalyst but now we could see other areas hurting.

However, many people are just realizing this new development and others are still oblivious to a market decline. But we prepared for this potential scenario and now are waiting for the downtrend to unfold over the next few months. Bonds remain in a bull market, as yields continue to decline.

Bonds Bull is Roaring

We have been discussing stock market's #Bear and Bond market's #Bull for a while. Now it seems like Bond market is really taking-off. This is evident from a sharp rally in the bonds over the last 2 weeks. Some might attribute it to the declining stock market but a bull market keeps on rising and people find reasons for the rise.

As a confirmation of the trend, bond prices have just completed an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern (shown below):

We have been discussing this pattern since December, as following charts was published here on December 21.

As bonds rally and stocks decline, we are short stocks and long bonds. Being long bonds gives us cash flow in form of dividends and being short stocks allows us to take advantage of the downside.

Like any market, this bond rally will come across obstacles but the constant cash flow and the diversification provided by this investment is invaluable, along with the potential for capital gains. At the same time, it will provide a very good opportunity and probably the last opportunity for people to buy homes at very low interest rates.

As market gets more volatile, it will even make more sense to invest in bonds. But the good time to invest in any asset class or stock is before the major move happens and the news becomes public. Let's see when the stock market bounce happens, which might provide added insight into the long-term (6 months to 1 year) market trajectory.

After all is said and done, there will be a very good opportunity to buy stocks down the road.

Long Term View of Dow Jones Industrial - $DJIA

Markets continued their decline and are again poised for a down day with China closing early due to circuit breakers being activated for the day.

We have been talking about the stock market trend change since September 2015 in the following blog posts:

1. New Year and the Stock Market
2. Bonds Rally Analysis and Stocks
3. Importance of objectivity in trend following
4. Current Market - Bear Case Evaluation
5. Investment Optimization Model (IOM) Performance - August 2015

At the same time we have been discussing markets via twitter on a more frequent basis. In this post, I would like to analyze the market from a long-term perspective. Chart below shows the performance of Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 2 decades. 

Following are the key highlights evident from the above chart:

1. US stock market remained in a sideways phase for over a decade
2. US stock market broke above the resistance level in 2012. This break was more pronounced in SP500
3. Rounding top/Head and Shoulders top formations took place at the two prior tops. And currently, it seems like a similar pattern is being formed
4. There is a longer-term trend line which the market failed to break to the upside, and might have capped this bull-market
5. Since the economy lags the stock market by ~6 months, we can start seeing the impact of lower oil prices through energy sector decline in the economy, starting in Q3'16
6. If the market has really topped, we can expect ~7+ months of decline to correct last ~7 years of rally (if we are not in a secular bear market)
7. Decline in earnings will result in higher P/E ratio. As a result, stock prices might come down to bring the P/E ratio to normal or lower valuations
8. Many of the individuals components of $DJIA are tracing out individual Head and Shoulder patterns, which could mean that the market's components are broken
9. Best case scenario for this correction would be to end before breaching below 2011 lows
10. Worst case scenario would be a break below 2009 lows and formation of an expanded traingle pattern, similar to 1970s bear market but a larger scale

In short, current market decline should be looked at with caution. Until and unless the model confirms a bull market, we will not enter long. Algorithm has been long bonds for a while and went short on stocks on Jan 1st. Aggressive portfolio is long other assets based on proprietary asset allocation mechanism.

At UST we have now dealt with short-term trading based on IPM trading model and longer-term investment based on Investment Optimization Model. We will continue to share our insights with readers. For now be careful. We will go long, as soon as the model goes long.

Bonds Rally Analysis and Stocks

Market's decline on Friday was very sharp and was on top of Thursday 250+ point decline in $DJIA. This decline has brought the market to a critical support level in Nasdaq and $DJIA, while in other indices like Russell 2000 and $SPY this critical level has already been broken to the downside.

Downside break means that the near term trend has turned down. Although some technical analysts might take this decline as a trend change signal, at UST we have been suggesting that a sea change has already taken place in the stock markets in August.

Unfortunately, many market participants are still not seeing the bigger picture because they don't follow objective trend analysis. Instead, they follow the market events and try to gauge the markets response to these events. At Understand, Survive and Thrive, we have always used objective market analysis and statistical models to identify market trends and turn points.

In the last post (link), we analyze the significance of recent Federal Reserves action and suggested that although the Federal Reserves thinks that the economy is strong and they can raise rates, this rate increase could not only have negative consequences on the market but also could result in lower rates. Longer term rates are governed by the perception of the economy of market participants and if investors don't believe in the same story of strong fundamentals, they might keep on buying the bonds, resulting in lower bond yields and higher prices.

Although this concept does not make intuitive sense, it was evident in the last few days where the market went down and interest rates also went down even after Fed's rate hike.

We have already discussed the potential fundamental issues with the economy and how its depends on the perception. There are also several technical reasons behind rally in bond prices:

1. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern
2. Capital outflow from bond funds
3. Proprietary trend indicator

Current pattern in the bonds suggests that the longer term bonds, as depicted by $TLT below, are carving out an inverted head and shoulders pattern. As you know, inverted head and shoulders pattern is a bullish pattern and shows trend reversal from lower to higher. So it will be interesting to see how the market reacts over the next few weeks when this pattern matures and is about to break-out.

From socio-economic and sentiment perspectives, in anticipation of Fed's announcement many people jumped ship from the bonds and exited in great numbers. This could be interpreted as a potential contrarian buy signal for longer-term bonds.

Finally, as we have been saying for quite some time, bonds are in bull market for some time and will remain till model says otherwise. Therefore, we will find reasons for the bull market to continue which can be either due to economic weakness, technical rally or delay from Fed in raising rates further.

Please note that this analysis is only pertaining to high quality long-term bonds and not related to Junk bonds, which are linked to the economic activity. Weakness in economy would result in a decline in Junk bonds, as we have been witnessing over the past few months.

Fed Decision and its Impacts

After 6 years, Federal Reserves raised the Fed benchmark rate. While on one hand it signifies the fact that the underlying economy is doing well because of which Fed increased the rates, it also suggests that the market should embrace the new normal i.e. upcoming higher interest rates. Higher rates can impact many different walks of life ranging from savers to home owners.

Higher rates mean lower bond prices and could impact:

1. Home buyers
2. Credit Borrowers
3. Real estate investors
4. Savers
5. Equity investors
6. Bond investors

Although one can write separate blog posts for every individual class, the major theme will revolve around increased cost of credit. With increased borrowing cost, it will get difficult to buy homes, borrow for credit card purchases, borrow for investments in real estate or other venture, thus reducing the flow of money in the economy.

It will also encourage corporations and individuals to save and at some point make equities less appealing, as they will be able to get higher rates without added risk. Please don't get me wrong - savings are the engine of long-term economic development, while spending helps in the short-term.

Since the rates and prices move in opposite direction, rate increase by Feds means that bond prices will decline. However, contrary to this simplistic idea, UST's proprietary bond market analysis suggests that longer term bonds are still in a bull market. It is one of the 3 primary asset classes that is in a bull market.

Therefore, bond investors should not be scared by this Fed hike. Bonds will continue to do better for some time. This also flows well with our discussion on objective trend following, in the last blog post. Objective investing requires one to analyze asset classes holistically rather than event based analysis. And at this point, holistic picture based on proprietary indicators is suggesting that the bond market will do better. This could mean:

1. Stocks are going to perform poorly to push interest rates down even with fed hikes
2. Fed fund rate hikes will be in contrast to economic reality, and could result in yield curve inversion

Both of the above scenarios are bad for economy and investors. In the next few posts, we will discuss:

Detailed discussion on potential causes of bond yield decline even with Fed's increased rates

Alternative investments, according to their state - Part 2

Elliott Wave analysis of current stock market

Asset allocation options

Tax implications 

Revisiting Objectivity and market trend

Let me know if you think the best time to buy homes is about to come or has already passed?