Tuesday, January 31, 2017

US Stocks at Tipping Point

For readers who want to quickly read about the action plan in this environment, scroll down to the Next Steps section. For detailed understanding of current situation, please read through:


Latest rally phase started in November 2016, around election time. Initially, it was regarded as a relief rally for Hillary could become president as FBI investigation had yielded no results. However, it quickly turned into Trump rally because of promises for stimulus and other pro-business policies.

The popular belief was that the new president will only implement pro-business policies like stimulus and tax cuts, while several other more aggressive policies will not be enacted. Fast forward to today, and the pro-business policies remain elusive while the aggressive policies are causing confusion and in return global equity markets are suffering.

Correction that was due

Blaming the market's decline on policies or some external factors is what TV commentators do. But there is another perspective to looking at this decline. And that is related to the fact that the markets have not experienced any substantial decline since last February (2016).

Following charts shows a nicely persistent rally that had endured over the last year in the face of all the uncertainty of 2016. Both SP500 and Nasdaq show a clear 5-wave rally pattern.

It is surreal to look back at the extremely dismal start of 2016, when people were talking about Oil crash and so many other variables. Even then the market managed to end up ~12% in 2016.

In such a volatile year, our proprietary strategy beat the market and the gained 12.2%. Most of the gains were long-term gains, thus minimizing tax impact (Detailed 2016 performance evaluation).

Therefore, one cannot judge the performance of the market just by looking at couple of months. But one thing is for sure, volatility will be high as overdue correction finally arrives.

No Buy signal, means continued decline

There are several other reasons to believe that recent decline is the start of something bigger:
  1. No buy signal after 2 day decline
  2. Extremely high valuations
  3. Political uncertainty without any focus on economic stimulus programs
  4. Hawkish Fed 
  5. Fairly optimistic sentiment
In order for these stock market rally impediments to go away, market needs to consolidate recent gains. Right now there is no indication that this decline will be the start of a new bear market. However, if the government does not deliver on its pro-business policies, it could quickly turn into one.

Next Steps and Investing Strategies

  1. Keep an eye on the Market Classification Model to understand if and when the stock market enters a Bear Market (MCM Details).
  2. US markets are still in Bull phase and this could be a good buying opportunity, at lower levels
  3. Gold and Bonds can be good alternatives, with careful review of the MCM
  4. Develop an investment plan with your goals in mind and invest accordingly. For example, if you want good returns and have some extra cash, one can buy BitCoins
We will continue to explore 2017 strategic investing ideas on this blog. Forward looking investing helps you in keeping a level head while investing. For example, we mentioned that the market had not entered a bear market in Oct-Nov 2016 and added longs, and ended up benefitting from the latest rally. Analysis during election time:
Therefore, if your interested in free e-mail list or in paid services like Market Classification Model, please fill-out the form below.

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