Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The Moment of Truth!!!

The market structure needs one last spike. This spike will lead the market (SP500, DJIA and Nasdaq) to level above August 14 highs. However, SP500 and Nasdaq should not break above April 2012 highs. Therefore, the SP500 can top out between 1410 and 1424.

Also note that we are towards the end of the IPM turn window. Therefore, a market turn should be expected at any time.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Market is Close to a Top!!!

Its is a time to be very careful.

1. The Trend is Neutral-Down for the global stock market proxy, which suggests that the resolution of current sideways market action will be to the downside.

2. US and Global markets are currently undergoing the 8/4 Test on a weekly time-frame. If the test fails, the market will crack hard to the downside.

3. Based on Elliott Wave analysis the wave structure is nearly complete, suggesting that we are close to the top.

4. Sentiment is showing complacency, which supports the top rationale.

5. Technically, current market rise has been very week in terms of internal strength. Furthermore, markets are tracing out ominous technical patterns. And these patterns are prevalent across multiple markets, which is even more dangerous.

6. Inflection Point Model (Both Weekly and Daily) have turn dates around August 10 (+/- 4 days).

7. Leading markets are showing significant divergences, which is typically a harbinger of future market decline.

8. Fundamentals, have weekend considerable especially after the FED and ECB did not announce any new QE program. If the market had fallen right after those announcements, it would have been a very obvious trade. But now after 1 week of rise, market has convinced a lot of participants that those decisions did not matter. However, those decisions were very significant events!! At the same time, slower profit growth, weaker U.S. data, a faltering global economy and other looming events, like the U.S. fiscal cliff and more fallout from the European debt crisis, are all reasons for concern.

Risk-Management: The market (SP500 and Nasdaq) should not rise above April 2012 highs...

Note: I have been busy for the past few weeks that is why blog posts have been in-frequent. If you want a detailed report of the above mentioned analysis or any of the individual components, please send an e-mail to

Because compiling such a detailed market analysis report will take up a lot of time and effort, there will be a fee associated with it.