Monday, October 29, 2012

IPM Forecast Reviews

After a month of starting the IPM Subscription service, it seems appropriate to review the model's predictions and evaluate them per actual market behavior.


"According to the IPM model, the next turn date is scheduled for October 12, 2012 (+/- 4 days), and this date should correspond to a market top. As we know that markets have risen very sharply recently. This sharp rise has pushed various technical indicators in the overbought region. Since no market goes straight up and the next top date is projected after 4 weeks, market might go sideways for a week or two. This sideways action could start next week."

What Actually Happened?
SP500 touched 1465 on 9/14 and then declined to 1430 over the next couple of weeks ==> 35 point decline

"According to the latest IPM model run, the next turn date is scheduled for October 12, 2012 (+/- 4 days), and this date should correspond to a market top. Since the market has declined over the last two weeks, it has undone some of the over-bought conditions and has reduced excessive optimism. This condition along with the fact that early September rally was accompanied by strong internal market strength, suggests that we are poised for further gains. Next rally would create the necessary market divergences to result in a market top."

What Actually Happened?
9/28/2012:  SP500 = 1436           (Bottom) ==> Rise of 30 points
10/18/2012:  SP500 = 1463         (Top)      ==> Decline of 60 points as of today
This was a truncated top (A classic occurrence at the tops of greater importance)

October 14, 2012 – IPM Analysis (Document will be uploaded in November): 
"It seems like the market has setup itself for a nice rally. With top Fortune 500 companies about to report in the coming 2-3 weeks, it is highly likely that we will some gains. Furthermore, past 4 weeks of sideways market action has undone the over-bought conditions and has reduced excessive optimism. Another scenario to keep in mind is that the market will top out during the latter part of the turn window i.e. by 10/18/12. This will start a sharp decline to new lows and might continue till Nov XX, 2012 turn window."

What Actually Happened?
10/12/2012: SP500 = 1426            (Bottom) ==> Rise of 40 points
10/18/2012: SP500 = 1465            (Top)      ==> Decline of 60 points as of today
11/XX/2012: SP500 =                   (Bottom)


If interested in these updates, please fill out the form below. 

Package A ($15 / month) :- 1 IPM model report per month. Find out the next turn date (not find out whether it will be a potential top or bottom). Report is sent over the 1st Weekend (Saturday / Sunday) of the month.

Package B ($28 / month) :- 2 IPM model reports per month. First report will highlight the market turn date during the 1st weekend. 2nd report will be sent out over the 3rd weekend of the month with updated model output based on model re-run. Both report will highlight whether the next turn date is expected to be a Top or Bottom.

Monday, October 15, 2012

IPM Model Updated and Mailed

IPM Model Update has been mailed to subscribers!!!

Very interesting days ahead till elections.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Market Matrix Analysis - Text Only

After 3 weeks of sideways action, market has setup a very unique opportunity to enter long with a stop below recent lows. 

Elliott Wave: Market seems to have completed a 3-3-5 correction in SP500, DJIA, Russell. And in case of Nasdaq, it appears to have completed 5-3-5 correction.

Earnings: Typically, when markets decline into the earnings season, it rises when the earnings start

Supporting Markets: 
Euro has held above its October 1, 2012 lows ==> Positive Divergence
Copper has held above its Sept 26, 2012 lows ==> Positive Divergence
Emerging markets have also held above their Sept 26, 2012 lows ==> Positive divergence

The market internals (Advance Decline, Tick, Trin, Volume Weighted NYMO) are strong and some are even showing positive divergences.

Trend is still up

Suddenly a lot of people have started giving weight to a correction possibility ranging from newsletter writers to individuals and from banks to websites. Therefore, with all the above positive developments, its possible that we might not see a significant decline, infact we might be very close to a bottom).

Subscribers only. 

Note: Risk management is the key!!

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

IPM Updated - Sharp Move is Approaching

Latest IPM model has already been e-mailed to subscribers on September 30, 2012. Based on the IPM model, next two weeks will be very interesting. We are already seeing market internals, Elliott Wave structure, sentiment and leading markets, set-up in accordance with the IPM turn date.

Market can test very important levels in the next few days. In fact, the targets have been calculated and will be shared as soon as the move starts.

Next IPM model update will be mailed out on:  October 14, 2012.