Tuesday, December 6, 2016

November Review and December Forecast

Over the last 2 weeks we have discussed Gold market and the Bond market, in terms of their structure and sentiment, to understand the next rally phase. Detailed analysis can be reviewed here:
As we enter a new month, its critical to quickly review last month and then try to understand where things could go in the last month of 2016.

November 2016

At the beginning of November, market experienced a sustained consecutive negative days. This negative behavior, not only tilted the sentiment to bearish and technical indicators to oversold, it also completed the correction pattern. This completion gave way to an amazing rally. We discussed the upcoming rally several times in following posts:
even though few people will remember this fact but the market started rallying even before the election on the news that FBI had dropped the investigation involving Hillary Clinton's e-mail. At that point, people attributed the rally to Mrs. Clinton's impending victory. However, as Mr. Trump won and the market continued its rally, it took many by surprise. 

This tells us that news/economic/political events don't matter. It's the reaction to these events that matter. And one of the best ways to gauge the reaction objectively is by looking at the price structure and sentiment indicators, along with forecasting strategies. 

Correlation with the US Dollar
Even more interesting is the fact that this rally has come in sync with rallying US Dollar. Typically, when US Dollar rallies, all asset classes are impacted. And if not directly impacted, they find it difficult to rally. But following chart shows the amazing correlation between US Dollar and the stock market:

Divergence with Advance Decline line
While this rally has made a lot of market commentators excited about the prospects of a major rally and 2017 with prospects of a major stimulus, this rally wasn't substantial enough to eliminate NYAD divergence.

Divergence in Advance Decline issues is critical for a sustained rally. This doesn't mean that this current rally cannot move much higher, it just means that the near-term rally could face challenges to continue in face of this divergence.

What's Next in December?

In summary, we have credible reasons to believe that the recent stock market rally is extended and we could see a market correction over the next 1-2 weeks (probably till next IPM turn window). While Stocks market corrects, asset reallocation can take place with money flowing into oversold sectors like Gold and Bonds.

Since US Dollar is also extended, a correction in the Dollar index will also support Gold rally. On the other hand, Fed FOMC meeting and an announcement to increase the short-term rates can also reduce some of the uncertainty from the Bond market, which could result in reprieve rally for Bonds.

Market might resume its uptrend in the 2nd half of December. However, the velocity of the ascent might not be as significant, as it has been in November.

Lastly, for Gold it is a do-or-die point. It needs to rally above 1205 in the next few weeks or it will likely enter another bear market.

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