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Thursday, April 12, 2018

Q1 2018 Performance Evaluation

Q1 2018 has been very interesting. We started the year after an amazing 2017. In fact, we said the following words to define 2017 performance in Jan 2018

"2017 was a very unique year with respect to market performance. SP500 was up for every month of the year, a very unusual occurrence. When one combines this amazing performance with extremely low volatility, it gave us a Sharpe Ratio of more than 3.5. To be honest, if one can get a Sharpe Ratio of 3.5 from an asset class like SP500, one should never invest anywhere else. 

However, the problem is that the historical Sharpe Ratio of the US stock market from 1928 to 2016 is 0.4. This means that last year's performance was an anomaly and will likely not be repeated in the near future. Therefore, one needs to prepare for more volatile, low performance markets over the next few years."

However, Q1 2018 has confirmed our hypothesis that 2017's performance was an anomaly to be replaced by extreme volatility. During Q1 2018, both of our proprietary strategies have performed very well while market has experienced amazing volatility. As you know, our goal is to generate value for investors not just try to beat the market every day because beating the market everyday carries risk and additional tax/transaction costs. We have been delivering value for clients in following 4 ways:
  1. Consistent / Absolute returns comparable to major stock indices
  2. Uncorrelated performance - Deliver Alpha under different market condition
  3. Differentiate by deploying techniques not used by mainstream investment gurus
  4. Provide a unique market perspective
Performance Summary (excludes fees)

    Q1 Market Recap
    2018 started with an outstanding January with SP500 (TR) rallying more than 5.7%. During the same time our conservative strategy under-performed the market, while aggressive strategy out-performed. January confirmed what we hypothesized in the beginning i.e. our strategies are not designed to beat the market every month. This is very important to know because understanding the investment strategy increases confidence.

    At the end of January, we received a sell signal in the stock market. This sell signal allowed us to end our long positions after ~2 years and build a very small portion of short positions. This sell signal played out very well as we moved in to February because we saw a sharp decline of more than 10% in major US indices. This decline caught many investors off-guard. However, the ensuing rally again increased the confidence of the bulls. During the rally phase, we continued to highlight the dangers of the rally, internal dynamics and IPM turn window with a suggestion that markets could top in early March.

    Markets did indeed top in early March, and have now declined to 200 DMA. They are bouncing around the 200 DMA and are encouraging many buyers to enter the market at potential support level. March decline was attributed to different reasons on different occasions. It started with Facebook leaks, went into Tesla and ended on Amazon. 

    We don't think the volatility will subside right away. We could see another leg down because the sell signal still remains in effect. With this backdrop of events, everyone should ask themselves if their portfolio is positioned to absorb increased volatility, and better yet, can they benefit from volatility. . 

    In order to properly and profitably navigate through markets where extreme gyrations and news driven moves are the norm, one needs to maintain composure. Our strategies don't depend on market news, rather take into account underlying market tones to make investment decisions. This reduces transaction cost, dampens volatility, moves taxes to long-term bucket and generate consistent results for long-term benefits.

    Portfolio Strategies
    We currently have two live strategies, and are working on 3 more strategies in Beta phase. Goal for both of these strategies is to generate absolute, uncorrelated returns: 
    • Conservative (EPSB): Suitable for retirement accounts and risk-averse investors
    • Aggressive (AEPSB): Suitable for risk taking investors, with longer-term invest goals
    Although past performance doesn't guarantee future results, Q1 2018 performance was very good for both strategies.  

    Note: Following strategy performance numbers do not include fees.

    Conservative Strategy: 1.81% vs -0.76% for SP500 (w/ dividends)
    In 2018 conservative strategy has out-performance SP500 and had a negligible correlation with SP500 monthly returns. This low correlation is also evident from performance since inception data.  


    Aggressive Strategy: 2.97% vs -0.76% for SP500 (with dividends)
    Aggressive strategy has significantly outperformed SP500 so far in 2018. And the R-sq correlation coefficient is 0.03. In other words, our performance was independent of SP500's performance. 


    Conclusion
    The best aspect of these strategies is that they enable the investor to concentrate on the work that is more important in life than losing sleep over investments through daily news because we do the research and invest using proprietary algorithms. If an adviser or fund manager cannot generate uncorrelated returns, investors are better-off investing in a standard passive fund. But if the manager can generate uncorrelated performance, they generate Alpha. And successful managers are compensated for generating Apha.

    These strategies are open for investment. Please feel free to contact via subscription.ust@gmail.com for details. These strategies are being implemented via managed account setup through a Registered Investment Adviser. As a result, you keep control over your assets. 

    Please contact us for details. You can also sign-up for free email updates below: 

    Tuesday, March 20, 2018

    Interesting Market Circumstances

    This post is an expansion of a 10 tweet thread posted on 3/12 by @survive_thrive on Twitter.

    2018 has been a very interesting year for the stock market. We have seen market perform amazingly in January, one of the best January on record but soon gave back all the gains in a period of 10 days. 
    This decline was accompanied by explosion of volatility, which caused many funds to experience their worst draw-down in decades. At the same time, many novice and experienced investors who were betting against VIX for years and had generated impressive gains over past few years were wiped out in 1 trading session.
    This volatility and wipe-out highlights the importance of a well-balanced portfolio that can generate returns under different market conditions. Such portfolio construction cannot be accomplished by just following the market pundits on TV because they are paid to react to market rather than being level-headed, which could also be boring. We prefer being boring and consistent because long-term gains are dependent on lower draw-down than temporary rally.

    In order to be level-headed, one needs to consider the market at its merits and dissect different aspects of the markets.

    Currently, the stocks are at a very interesting point. Nasdaq recently reached all time highs while SP500 recouped most of early February decline. This development was significant enough to attract many prominent financial analysts on financial media and twitter to proclaim continuation of the uptrend. However, we remained cautious of this rally because of multiple reasons.

    First of all, DJIA alongside other US and global indices have been rallying since 2016 (2 years) with a rather sharp rally since Nov 2016 US elections. This behavior is inherently unsustainable. Nothing goes straight-up. Similarly, nothing goes down in a straight line as well.  If a new rally phase starts at this point, it would mean that this rally would continue for few more months without a major correction. This kind of behavior, while possible, is highly unlikely.
    Secondly, we received a proprietary sell signal at the end of Jan. This signal was used previously but this is the first time we are using it in actual portfolio allocation. This sell signal is a predictive signal and therefore, helps us in pre-empting the risk. However, it doesn’t mean that we have entered a new bear market. On the contrary, as per our bull/bear model, we remain in a bull market with strong momentum.

    Thirdly, recent rally resulted in divergences. A divergence occurs when one index reaches a new high but is not accompanied by other indices. This shows reduced leadership, and signals weakness.

    Fourthly, bond market has been declining since June 2016. And now we are hearing from many pundits that the long-term Bond Bull market has ended, and this is also evident from heavily short positions. As the sentiment sours towards Bonds, we approach a critical decision point in Bonds:
    1.  Resumption of the rally: This possibility is supported by following observations –
      1. Proprietary buy signal
      2. Heavily negative sentiment towards Bonds
    2. Confirmation of the Bear market   
      1. Very close to confirming a bear market
    While we could enter a full blow Bond bull market, its possibility remains lower. And even if we do enter a bear market, we will have many more opportunities on the short-side.

    Keeping the above reasons in mind, we have established a very small (less than 10%) short position in the US stocks. This position will be active for few months till we receive another signal or this signal expires. Because we did not enter the short position right at the top because of reason mentioned earlier, we were underwater for some time but now are again in the green. And look forward to further gains.

    However, one should keep in mind that investing against the primary trend is a dangerous game. Since the trend remains higher, our position size remains small and is supported by key sell signals.

    Under such circumstances, our portfolio remains risk-neutral. Following chart shows the performance of our portfolio with respect to SP500. Our goal has never been to always beat the market. Instead, it is to reduce volatility and maximize long-term gains. We hope that soon this sideways action will resolve to the upside and generate the expected gains that we have seen in past years, while minimizing the downside risk.

    Thursday, January 11, 2018

    2017 Performance Review

    2017 was a very unique year with respect to market performance. SP500 was up for every month of the year, a very unusual occurrence. When one combines this amazing performance with extremely low volatility, it gave us a Sharpe Ratio of more than 3.5. To be honest, if one can get a Sharpe Ratio of 3.5 from an asset class like SP500, one should never invest anywhere else. 

    However, the problem is that the historical Sharpe Ratio of the US stock market from 1928 to 2016 is 0.4. This means that last year's performance was an anomaly and will likely not be repeated in the near future. Therefore, one needs to prepare for more volatile, low performance markets over the next few years. 

    In 2017 SP500 returned 21.8% with dividends, even with many uncertainties like geo-politics, environmental upheavals, and rising interest rates. SP500 defied gravity as if there was no resistance, bemusing many market watchers who continuously expected a pause. In sort, 2017 was a difficult period for many logical investors as they continued to absorb a lot of headline risk. 

    During this interesting year, both of our proprietary strategies performed very well. Since the very beginning, our goal is not just to beat SP500 but to generate value for investors in following 4 ways:
    1. Consistent / Absolute returns comparable to major stock market indices
    2. Uncorrelated performance - Deliver Alpha under different market condition
    3. Differentiate by deploying techniques not used by mainstream investment gurus
    4. Provide a unique market perspective
    Performance Summary (excludes fees)

      Market Recap
      2017 started with an overbought market, which continued to rally into March followed by a 1.5 month sideways movement. At the time, many reasons were given for this decline including overbought market, high valuations, sentiment, potential for unfulfilled presidential promises and geo-political turmoil. However, market resumed its rally with Q2 earnings in April. 

      Market rally continued in May through early June. At the same time, we saw excessive optimism from famous investors calling tech stocks extremely cheap. As Fed raised rates in June market took a brief breather. This pause was accompanied by calls of '3 hops and a tumble' on Fed rates' influence on the markets. But with earning in July, market resumed it's ascent. 

      Q3 was unique as it introduced a lot of geo-political uncertainty ranging from North Korean missile tests to failed attempts to pass Health Care bill. While markets rallied during the early part of the earnings season, they went sideways for most of August and September. The real fireworks came in October, when things started looking optimistic for the tax reform bill and North Korean tensions waned. However, the show was stolen by Bitcoin's stratospheric rally, and media coverage of the crypto-currencies.
         

      With this backdrop of events, everyone should ask themselves if their portfolio is positioned to absorb increased volatility because it will eventually come. And not only absorb volatility but to take advantage from it. 

      In order to properly and profitably navigate through markets where extreme gyrations and news driven moves are the norm, one needs to maintain composure. Our strategies don't depend on market news, rather take into account underlying market tones to make investment decisions. This reduces transaction cost, dampens volatility, moves taxes to long-term bucket and generate consistent results for long-term benefits.

      Portfolio Strategies
      We currently have two live strategies, and are working on 3 more strategies in Beta phase. Goal for both of these strategies is to generate absolute, uncorrelated returns: 
      • Conservative (EPSB): Suitable for retirement accounts and risk-averse investors
      • Aggressive (AEPSB): Suitable for risk taking investors, with longer-term invest goals
      Although past performance doesn't guarantee future results, 2017 performance was very good for both strategies. June was the first negative month after 6 positive months and September was the second negative month, providing a much needed correction to avoid over-heating. These two months were the only negative months of the year, and have set us up for a sharp rally into the new year. 

      Note: Following strategy performance numbers do not include fees.

      Conservative Strategy: 17.3% vs 21.8% for SP500 (w/ dividends)
      In 2017 conservative strategy performance similar to SP500 in % terms but had a negligible correlation with SP500 monthly returns. This low correlation is also evident from performance since inception data. R-sq correlation coefficient is 0.07 with respect to SP500. 


      Aggressive Strategy: 44.0% vs 21.8% for SP500 (with dividends)
      Aggressive strategy significantly outperformed SP500 in 2017. And the R-sq correlation coefficient is 0.03. In other words, our performance was independent of SP500's performance. 


      Conclusion
      The best aspect of these strategies is that they enable the investor to concentrate on the work that is more important in life than losing sleep over investments through daily news because we do the research and invest using proprietary algorithms.

      These strategies are open for investment. Please feel free to contact via subscription.ust@gmail.com for details. These strategies are being implemented via managed account setup through a Registered Investment Adviser. As a result, you keep control over your assets. 

      Please contact us for details. You can also sign-up for free email updates below: 

      Monday, October 16, 2017

      Q3' 2017 Performance Review

      2017 has been a very eventful year. Through September, SP500 has rallied more than 14% with dividends, even with many uncertainties like geo-politics, environmental upheavals, and rising interest rates. In fact, SP500 has defied gravity, as if there is nothing like gravity of resistance, bemusing many market watchers who have been expecting a pause for quite some time now. Hence, it has been a difficult period for investors as they have to absorb a lot of headline risk and be brave in their investments. 

      During these testing times, both of our proprietary strategies have performed very well. Since the very beginning, our goal is not just to beat SP500 but to generate value for investors in following 4 ways:
      1. Consistent returns comparable to major stock market indices
      2. Uncorrelated performance - Deliver Alpha under any market condition
      3. Differentiate by deploying techniques not used by mainstream investment gurus
      4. Provide a unique perspective to markets.
      Performance Summary (excludes fees)

      Although we plan to review 2017 performance in greater detail over next few weeks, let's quickly review the circumstances that have made 2017 unique. 

      Market Recap
      2017 started with an overbought market, which continued to rally into March followed by a 1.5 month decline. At the time, many reasons were given for this decline including overbought market, high valuations, sentiment, potential for unfulfilled presidential promises and geo-political turmoil. However, market resumed its rally with Q2 earnings in April. 

      Market rally continued in May through early June. At the same time, we saw excessive optimism from famous investors calling tech stocks extremely cheap. As Fed raised rates in June market took a brief breather. This pause was accompanied by calls of '3 hops and a tumble' on Fed rates' influence on the markets. But with earning in July, market resumed it's ascent. 

      Everyone should ask themselves if their portfolio is positioned to absorb increased volatility because it will come eventually. And not only absorb volatility but take advantage from it. 

      In order to properly and profitably navigate through markets where extreme gyrations and news driven moves are the norm, one needs to maintain composure. Our strategies don't depend on market news, rather take into account underlying market tones to make investment decisions. This reduces transaction cost, dampens volatility, moves taxes to long-term bucket and generate consistent results for long-term benefits.

      Portfolio Strategies
      We currently have two live strategies, and are working on 3 more strategies in Beta phase. Goal for both of these strategies is to generate absolute, uncorrelated returns: 
      • Conservative (EPSB): Suitable for retirement accounts and risk-averse investors
      • Aggressive (AEPSB): Suitable for risk taking investors, with longer-term invest goals
      Although past performance doesn't guarantee future results, 2017 performance through Q3 was very good for both strategies. June was the first negative month after 6 positive months, providing a much needed correction to avoid over-heating. And with September's decline, we are now within the buy range, which means that we are prepared for a significant rally phase in the next quarter or so.

      Note: Following strategy performance numbers do not include fees.

      Conservative Strategy: 13.5% vs 14.2% for SP500 (w/ dividends)
      Through Q3 2017, Conservative strategy performed similar to SP500. Keep in mind that SP500 has had a very good year so far, with it being up ~14%. But the better part is that since inception in Jan 2016, R-sq correlation coefficient is 0.07 with respect to SP500. 

      Aggressive Strategy: 33.7% vs 14.2% for SP500 (with dividends)
      Aggressive strategy has performed very well in 2017. And the R-sq correlation coefficient is 0.01. In other words, our performance is not dependent on how the stock market performs.



      Conclusion
      The best aspect of these strategies is that they enables the investor to concentrate on the work that is more important in life than losing sleep over investments through daily news because we do the research and invest using proprietary algorithms and valuation models.

      These strategies are open for investment. Please feel free to contact via subscription.ust@gmail.com for details. These strategies are being implemented via managed account setup through a Registered Investment Adviser. As a result, you keep control over your assets. 

      Please contact us for details. You can also sign-up for free email updates below: 

      Friday, August 25, 2017

      Market at Crossroad & Potential Catalysts

      Over the past few weeks, we are seeing several consolidation patterns popping-up in different markets. Consolidation usually signals in-decision or brief pause before resumption of the underlying trend. However, markets also consolidate in a sequence of 1s and 2s before a significant move in a new direction.

      It appears like we are experiencing both the cases in different areas, where market is tracing out a sequence of 1s and 2s, and is waiting for a catalyst to break out of this consolidation. Following charts show this pattern:

      Bonds: Since July Bond prices have been increasing but in an overlapping manner. This suggests that either this is a corrective move and we will see a move down soon, or we will soon see above June highs.


      Gold: Over the past 4 days, Gold has placed in 4 inside days above the downtrend line and near the resistance. Inside days show indecision - a point where buyers and sellers are not comfortable making the move. Although most of sideways consolidations result in a move in the direction of the trends, next few days will be telling in terms of the move.


      Stocks: SP500 is stair stepping down. Like other instruments, this stair-step pattern would either give way to a substantial decline in the near future or would turn out to be a correction in the broader up trend.

      Even though stock market sentiment has come down recently, it remains elevated. On the other hand sentiment for Bonds and Gold is rising but not very optimistic yet. Proprietary timing indicators suggest that next turn date is few weeks away in the stock market. Therefore, if the market declines, other assets could rally but they need a catalyst to move away from current sideways indecision.

      Need for Catalyst
      Today's Jackson Hole speeches by Janet Yellen (Fed Chair) and Mario Draghi (Chair ECB) could be the catalyst that the market is waiting for.

      If it is the trigger and if the markets start moving in 3rd wave out of this consolidation, logical move would be a rally in Gold and Bonds, while decline in Stock Market. Stock market is over-valued and has been rising for over a year, so this move is very possible. A decline in the stocks will be attributed to debt-ceiling debate and numerous other distractions from Washington by fundamental analysis but essentially it will be a natural part of the market rhythm.

      We have underscored this observation multiple times that financial news media distracts investors. It can lead to early exit and pre-mature entry into investment positions. As a result, one of the lessons that we learned through 2016 is (Investing Lessons)

      Lesson 1: There are no guarantees but being persistent is the key to long-term success

      Long-term investing is regarded as the secret ingredient for many successful investors. Time is a very powerful commodity. If you give time to a successful business model or investing strategy, and combine it with dedicated and passionate management team, it will give you amazing long-term results.

      Another reason why long-term returns are much more important than short-term returns is because when a portfolio achieve critical mass, one’s personal savings will not have that big an impact on the growth of portfolio. For example: $100K invested today will grow to 1M @ 20% return in ~13 years. At that point 100K will not have as much value because @20% / year an investor will experience a $200K increase without adding any more funds.

      Thirdly, investing is a game of nerves and patience, whether in the stock market or any other endeavor like small business, start-ups through Angel/Venture investing, or Private Equity. The only difference with stock market based investing is that you have the opportunity to exit early because the market provides excessive liquidity, which provides peace of mind for many investors.

      Long-term investment positioning and persistence provides investor with the focus needed to successfully withstand periods of draw-down because major moves take place after big draw-down periods. We will discuss additional lessons in the next post.

      How to Position? 
      Most of the readers would agree that the markets are at a critical juncture. However, knowing this is one thing and acting on this information is totally different. So far in 2017, we have mentioned several big moves on this blog and on twitter but doubt if effective trading was performed around this analysis by the readers.

      Effective, long-term and consistent trading requires discipline and an edge in the market to adjust findings as market situations change. At this critical time, we are using proprietary models to expose clients to positions that have the highest success probability.  Performance - H1 2017 

      Contact
      • Any investment / trading questions: Twitter (@survive_thrive)
      • Free e-mails or Investing: Click on the button below 

      Friday, August 18, 2017

      Current Market Volatility and Lessons from 2016

      Summary
      • Overview of July / August market action
      • Performance milestone of Investment Strategies
      • Lessons learned from 2016 draw-down and positioning for effective investing

      Recent Market Action
      Yesterday we saw a significant downdraft in the markets with SP500 down over 1.5%, while Nasdaq was down ~2%. Although this kind of behavior is nothing new for market watchers who remember 2008, it was a surprise for many who had forgotten that volatility can even rise. And not only rise, but bite very hard.

      Although 2% decline in one session is good for some investors - those who are looking for cheaper stocks or are short the market, it is very scary for other market participants who are long stocks. These are the type of market conditions (volatile and uncertain), where a "Market Neutral, Absolute Return" strategy shines out among many other options.

      Such strategy when combined with algorithmic rigor and proprietary indicators can not only give you peace of mind during down turns, it positions your portfolio for significant rallies. Following chart shows SP500 since the beginning of July 2017. It is evident that SP500 went sideways for over 1.5 months (+0.3%), while our portfolio strategies performed very well (Up 3.8% and 9.1% excluding fees).

      Disclaimer: Performance numbers do not include fees and past performance doesn't guarantee future results
      Historical Perspective
      Overall, it has been a very interesting year with a rising global stock markets. However, riding the rising market has not been easy because of constant uncertainty. On one hand, financial media pundits highlighted that the equity markets are over-extended and one should prepare for a potential decline, while on the other side, they kept recommending staying long and buying in the market because of multitude of reasons. As a result, it became very difficult for a regular investor to invest in the market - let alone the volatility that we are experiencing right now. 

      Although this makes things difficult, the good news is that this is nothing new and hence can prepare us for the future. Markets, financial pundits and media always behave like this. I have seen this over past 9 years of writing about the markets, and through the history of the financial markets whether in 1929, 1960s, 1980s, 1990s or 2000s.

      In order to counter this continuous propagation of news that negatively impacts one’s portfolio, we developed our proprietary “Market Neutral – Absolute Returns” strategies. In 2016, we only had a conservative strategy, which performed very well. In 2017, we launched an aggressive strategy along with the conservative strategy. These strategies have performed extremely well in 2017.

      Last week, we hit a major milestone – New all-time highs in the Conservative strategy, as sown below. If someone is interested in numbers, please contact us using the link below or e-mail at: subscription.ust@gmail.com
      Disclaimer: Performance numbers do not include fees and past performance doesn't guarantee future results
      Last time, this strategy had reached these level was back in Aug 2016. Last 12 months have taught us very important lessons that have helped us improve our performance parameters and discuss investment approach in a very holistic form with our clients, rather than providing pointed near-term solutions. 

      Lessons Learned: 
      1. There are no guarantees but being persistent is the key to long-term success
      2. Understanding that a portfolio can and will decline
      3. Reduce exposure on sharp gains even if it means to leave a loved position
      4. Probability plays an active role in the markets
      5. Fundamental reasons typically come out after the price action has already taken place or started
      6. At times a trade might seem counter intuitive because of perception
      7. Keep Learning: Improvements & Realization

      We will analyze all of these learning in greater detail in next few blog posts. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us on Twitter (@Survive_Thrive) or via e-mail.

      What are we doing?
      We have incorporated all of the lessons learned into our strategy algorithms' business rules. We hope that the implementation of these business rules and algorithmic real-time allocation will significantly improve portfolio results over the long-term. 

      We will be testing the results over the next few months and could result in a new strategy for clients. Existing customers will get access to new strategies at a discount.

      Positioning
      Markets are at a critical juncture. However, knowing this is one thing and acting on this information is totally different in our experience. So far in 2017, we have mentioned several big moves on this blog and on twitter, but doubt if effective trading was performed around this analysis.

      At this critical time, we are using proprietary models to expose clients to positions that have the highest success probability.  Performance - H1 2017 

      Contact
      • Any investment / trading questions: Twitter (@survive_thrive)
      • Free e-mail subscription: Click on the button below and select "Free E-mail"
      • Invest with us: Click on the button below and select the last Investment Option and a Registered Investment Advisor will reach out to you.

      Friday, July 21, 2017

      Gold Could Experience Significant Gains

      Summary:
      • Gold market Overview at the top of the post
      • Positioning / Investment options at the bottom of the post
      • Analysis: Short, Medium and Long-term analysis with rationale in the middle

      Introduction
      On April 4, 2017 we mentioned that the Gold rally could pause over here. At that point Gold was at 1263 and today its at 1245. Following chart shows the ~4 month sideways consolidation in Gold:

      What happened to Gold was that it succumbed to excessive optimism among market participants and as a result wasn't able to muster enough strength or the wall of worry wasn't strong enough to allow Gold to climb beyond immediate resistance levels.

      At the same time, stock markets around the world did pretty well, which dampened Gold's demand. As a result, sentiment turned extremely sour towards precious metals. for example:
      • Daily sentiment Index reached: 10 out of 100
      • Long Positions of major hedge funds reached lows not seen since late 2015
      • Articles started coming out proclaiming much lower Gold prices and Bitcoin being the new Gold
      Both of these development highlighted the fact that in July (after 3 months), wall of worry had again gotten stronger. And now we are at a different phase in Gold. We will evaluate Gold from near-term perspective to long-term to understand what is coming-up next.

      Near -term:  Since July 11th  Gold has been stair-stepping higher without any major move, which is good because its moving under the radar. Secondly, it is tracing out a sequence of 1s and 2s, which can lead to a sharp move higher in wave 3 of 3. 

      Medium Term: While Gold and Gold stocks prepare for acceleration on the short-term time frame, they are also positioned very well for a rally in medium term. Because at this time frame, Gold also completed a sequences of 1s and 2s. Even though following chart shows Gold stocks, bullish case for Gold is similar if not better.

      Longer-term: Gold is tracing out an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. This pattern, once broken can lead to 1400 price. Important thing to note is that this price target might will not be achieved in one day but will reach there over time.

      Rationale: There are many reasons that can propel Gold to higher levels some of these include:

      1. Potential correction in Stocks and Gold acting as the safety trade
      2. Potential increase in geo-political tensions
      3. Continuous weakness in US Dollar Index, which was one of the big trades at the start of the year but we mentioned in February on twitter (@survive_thrive) that this US Dollar rally might be over, so one should look for alternatives. We will discuss US Dollar index in greater detail in another post. 


      Positioning
      Markets are at a critical juncture. However, knowing that is one thing and acting on this information is totally different in our experience. We mentioned following big moves on this blog/twitter in 2017 but doubt if effective trading was performed around this analysis:

      • March Top
      • April Top in Gold
      • April Bottom in Stocks
      • Emerging Market buy in February
      • Early July bottom in Nasdaq
      • ...

      At this critical time, we are using proprietary models to expose clients to positions that have the highest success probability.  Our strategies have generated consistent returns, while taking advantage of new market opportunities and minimizing existing risk. We provide Absolute Return Hedge Fund like strategies through Managed Accounts. Performance - H1 2017 

      Contact
      • Any investment / trading questions: Twitter (@survive_thrive)
      • Free e-mail subscription: Click on the button below and select "Free E-mail"
      • Invest with us: Click on the button below and select last Investment Option and a Registered Investment Advisor will get in touch with you.