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Thursday, October 9, 2014

Housing Rolling Over

following chart shows a 3-wave (Corrective rally) from March 2009 bottom. Housing stocks peaked in March of this year, 6 months before Stock market peak. 

Housing stocks are also forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, suggesting that housing is turning for the worst. This could have far reaching consequences for the overall market.



Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Will Exit Longs Soon

IPM Top window will give way to a short trade based on IPM Trade Matrix criteria.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Quick Update

As mentioned previously, market rallied into the IPM Top window.

Nasdaq at new highs!!!

Approaching a short setup, based on a sell setup trigger.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

IPM Review

Looking back to July 13 IPM update, following chart was sent out.
Now look at where DJIA topped.



Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Positive Divergence

Charts below show positive divergence between small caps and large caps. While small caps are making higher lows, DJIA and SPX are making lower lows. If this divergence holds, its positive for the market.



Russell 2000

DJIA


SP500

Monday, July 28, 2014

IPM Model Update

Latest IPM Model Update has been emailed to subscribers:

Excepts:

"Next week’s economic calendar is fairly busy along with several earnings reports. We will be
getting the 2nd quarter GDP report, Fed Meeting is scheduled,  ... 

If one of these reports results in a significant market decline or a rally, investors might conclude that the trend has reversed and one should either short the market or go long. However, the benefit of having access to the Inflection Point Model’s turn information is that one knows that they should either short on a rally or go long on a decline, with pre-defined risks. Rather than being pre-consumed with media headlines and getting whipsawed."

Whipsaw is the enemy of a trader in the long-run. It not only results in losses but also damages the confidence.

In this update, next IPM turn date is also highlighted. Next turn date is schedule to be a _______. Based on the next turn date information, one can properly navigate the trade


Thursday, July 24, 2014

Bonds nearing a Top

Bonds are nearing a near-term top per Elliott Wave structure.

Bond decline could result in US equity rally.

This is in line with the IPM bottom date.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Small Caps' Positioning

Yesterday market rallied with small caps leading the charge. If this situation persists, we could see a sharp rise in equity prices. Over the past few weeks, investors have reduced their long bets on small caps very significantly. In the following chart, red line shows the nature of bets of large funds. Right now, they are aggressively short.

Last time these large funds were this short, small caps rallied sharply and for quite some time. This means that there is a lot of hidden rally fuel in the small cap stocks, which could result in a sharp rally. Typically, rallies start with short covering and then give way to genuine buying as people see prices rising.

From an Elliott wave perspective, recent decline from June top remains corrective (3-waves) in nature. Now we need to break above critical level to confirm this assumption. Once uptrend reinstates itself, it will be interesting times for the small caps.

On the other hand, large caps are nicely poised for a breakout.

Moreover, IPM bottom window should mark the start of the rally, which could take SP500 to above 2000 and even to 2100. A market rally under current socio-political circumstances with Russian tensions, Israel-Palestine conflict and Iraqi uncertainty, would mean that news don't drive the market. Rather, they are driven by other elements e.g. Elliott Wave & sentiment (contrarion) .

IPM turn dates have already been emailed to subscribers. Next update will be sent on July 26/27.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Market Review

While market has been going sideways for the past few days, small caps are still lagging. But this sideways movement has created significant excitement among short sellers (once again). Excitement among short sellers is typically good for bulls. Following chart shows consolidation pattern in SP500. This pattern is also present in DJIA and Nasdaq.





On the other hand, it seems like small caps have completed a 3-wave decline pattern. Which can also be bullish for the market. Furthermore, there have been 4-5 buy signals over the past few days. 

Now, readers know about the IPM bottom window. One should trade according to the turn window and their trigger. Please note that in an uptrend, market could make a higher low within turn window.

According to IPM trade matrix a 50% long signal was triggered on the close yesterday. This also the reason why IPM Trade Matrix does not go short in an uptrend. As mentioned previously, IPM trade matrix information was supposed to be shared only in the first half of 2014. A method for continuous sharing of this information will be devised before continuing publication of IPM Trade Matrix information.  


Thursday, July 17, 2014

Market Overview & IPM Turn Window

Yesterday DJIA, Nasdaq 100 made new highs, while SP500 reached within 1 point of its all-time highs. All of this happened during the IPM top window. This again suggests that the Inflection Point Model is working and adding longs was the right strategy on the decline.

Following comment was posted on the blog on July 12:

"I question the i'm turn window or turn date...whatever u call it. Since u went long we've gone down or at best sideways. Seems like turn date should have been about 2 weeks later...If in fact we go up next week.

If ur method is proven u wouldn't be dollar cost averaging when it's going down...or else u just got in too early. 

I can say today is the turn and then when it goes down just say I'm adding more because someday it will go up again.

Regardless I hope ur right and it does go up but your method doesn't seem to work this time...or else the dates weren't right."


Now if we go back on July 10th and see where indices were, we get an interesting picture:

Index
July 10 – Low
July 16 – IPM Top Window
% Gain in 5 days
Annual Gain
DJIA
16805
17138
2%
99%
SP500
1953
1984
2%
79%
Nasdaq 100
3837
3947
3%
143%
GDOW
2585
2633
2%
93%
Russell 2000
1151
1160
1%
39%

The table above shows that the market did rally sharply into the IPM turn window. However, adding longs would not be possible at the lows if one did not have IPM turn window information. In this rtegard, following comment was also posted on the blog:

"Turn dates are what they are. I don't choose them, the model does. Only with the knowledge of next IPM turn window being a top, one can go long. If next turn window would have been a bottom, would have not gone long instead would have shorted.

So without the turn date and nature of the turn information, you can only guess. And guessing is not investing, it is playing in the casino. 
Current turn is similar to April 2013. Upcoming days will be telling."

even with this rally, I will be the first to admit that the market action has been poor. Under-performance of small caps raises many issues, especially as we enter the IPM top window. Initially, the expectation was that we will see a sharp relentless rally. However, it now feels like a subdued rise from an internal strength perspective. Therefore, one should wait for the IPM bottom window to gauge long trade on trigger.                                  

Monday, July 14, 2014

Friday, July 11, 2014

Back Online & Quick Update

Have been keeping twitter account updated with latest developments.


  • 3-4 buy signals were generated in the past few days.
  • We still need higher prices within next IPM turn window
  • 3 out of 5 primary indices are still above June lows, which means that June IPM low was critical and has not been violated
  • Major earnings start today with Wells Fargo.
  • If the market declines into the earnings, it typically rallies as earnings start


Conclusion: In for possible fireworks till next IPM turn window. Added longs on this recent decline.

IPM update will be emailed to subscribers over the weekend.

Saturday, July 5, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 11 (Part 6)

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades


TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) +0.3%
TRADE - 10: (Long - 5/16/14 to 5/31/14) = +7.4%

TRADE - 11: 
Bought TNA at 79.5 on 6/19, 6/23 & 6/25 based on IPM Trade Matrix long trigger. Cost Basis = 79.55 

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top
Trigger: SP500 = 1947, GDOW = 2599
Supporting Indicators: Uptrend   

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 2000
Profit Target 2: 2050

RISK 
Stop: SP500 = - , DJIA = -, GDOW = -, Comp = -
Trailing Stops (GDOW + 2): SP500 = 1976, GDOW = 2630, DJIA = 16990, Comp = 4462, IWM = 119
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -% (Entry = 1947 , Exit = 1966 , Risk = -% )
Risk Reason: Too much optimism

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 
For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 11 (Part 5)

Would like to start by thanking almighty God, who once again guided us through these tough markets. Now, congratulations to all who are long and are enjoying the ride. Today we saw an explosive move in the US markets. Best part is that none of the sell signals were triggered today. Therefore, we are still holding - possibly till next IPM turn window.


IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades


TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) +0.3%
TRADE - 10: (Long - 5/16/14 to 5/31/14) = +7.4%

TRADE - 11: 
Bought TNA at 79.5 on 6/19, 6/23 & 6/25 based on IPM Trade Matrix long trigger. Cost Basis = 79.55 

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top
Trigger: SP500 = 1947, GDOW = 2599
Supporting Indicators: Uptrend   

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 2000
Profit Target 2: 2050

RISK 
Stop: SP500 = - , DJIA = -, GDOW = -, Comp = -
Trailing Stops (GDOW + 2): SP500 = 1965, GDOW = 2610, DJIA = 16900, Comp = 4435, IWM = 120
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -% (Entry = 1947 , Exit = 1966 , Risk = -% )
Risk Reason: Too much optimism

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 
For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 11 (Part 4)

Stop level has been increased. Market is showing a breakout pattern. We might be in for a sharp rally till next IPM turn window. This rally would be the 3rd wave in terms of Elliott Wave analysis and should generate significant returns. We are still fully long, and will hold longs till either profit objectives are hit or stops are triggered. 




Overall, it seems like a lot of people started shorting the market in the last week. This will provide added fuel for a sharper rally. IPM turn date details have already been emailed to subscribers. We will based our trades on these turn dates. 


Upcoming market rally might not provide chances to get long. Therefore, if people missed the long trade, they would have to chase this market higher, which is always a dangerous proposition. In the June 14 update for subscribers, we wrote:


"In conclusion, we are in an uptrend but need a decline to alleviate optimistic extremes. We have also entered the IPM turn window. This turn window should result in a market bottom. All the indicators and supporting tools are suggesting higher prices into XXXX of 2014."

It seems like this prediction is coming true now...


IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades


TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) +0.3%
TRADE - 10: (Long - 5/16/14 to 5/31/14) = +7.4%

TRADE - 11: 
Bought TNA at 79.5 on 6/19, 6/23 & 6/25 based on IPM Trade Matrix long trigger. Cost Basis = 79.55 

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top/Bottom
Trigger: SP500 = 1947, GDOW = 2599
Supporting Indicators: Uptrend   

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 2000
Profit Target 2: 2050

RISK 
Stop: SP500 = - , DJIA = -, GDOW = -, Comp = -
Trailing Stops: Will be defined next week. SP500 = 1952, GDOW = 2600
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -% (Entry = 1947 , Exit = - , Risk = -% )
Risk Reason: Too much optimism

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 
For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

Friday, June 27, 2014

IPM trade matrix - trade 11 (part 3)

Yesterday's market decline was very interesting. Elliott Wave pattern suggests that the market traced out a 1 and 2 waves in DJIA and SP500, while small caps have traced out a series of 1s and 2s. Primary reason for this assessment stems from the fact that after yesterdays bottom, market rallied in an impulsive manner I.e. 5 waves.

Furthermore, ipm turn windows bottom date and recent buy signals are two other reasons why one should expect a rally.

At the same time, recent sideways action might have confused a lot of investors, who were looking for a sharp rally. But after looking at some sentiment measures' extreme optimistic reading during last weekends updates, it seems like market is trying to workoff this excess by going sideways and tiring investors. 


IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades


TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) +0.3%
TRADE - 10: (Long - 5/16/14 to 5/31/14) = +7.4%

TRADE - 11: 
Bought TNA at 79.5 on 6/19, 6/23 & 6/25 based on IPM Trade Matrix long trigger. Cost Basis = 79.55 

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top/Bottom
Trigger: SP500 = 1947, GDOW = 2599
Supporting Indicators: Uptrend   

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 2000
Profit Target 2: 2050

RISK 
Stop: SP500 = 1929, DJIA = 16716, GDOW = 2578, Comp = 4292
Trailing Stops: Will be defined next week. SP500 = -, GDOW = -
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -% (Entry = 1947 , Exit = - , Risk = -% )
Risk Reason: Too much optimism

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 
For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive
For E-mail updates: 

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Quick Update

Market is still in an uptrend. Yesterday's decline has not changed anything so far. Subscribers know the IPM Model turn window dates. As long as market does not make a lower low outside of the IPM model turn window, we should be in for higher prices.

In some regards, this could lead to a trending market for few weeks. 

Monday, June 23, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 11 (Part 2)

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades


TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) +0.3%
TRADE - 10: (Long - 5/16/14 to 5/31/14) = +7.4%

TRADE - 11: 
Bought TNA at 79.5 on 6/19 & 6/23 based on IPM Trade Matrix long trigger. Cost Basis = 79.7 

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top/Bottom
Trigger: SP500 = 1947, GDOW = 2599
Supporting Indicators: Uptrend   

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 2000
Profit Target 2: 2050

RISK 
Stop: Will be defined after IPM turn window expired. SP500 = -, DJIA = -, GDOW = -
Trailing Stops: SP500 = -, GDOW = -
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -% (Entry = 1947 , Exit = - , Risk = -% )
Risk Reason: Too much optimism

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.



For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 
For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive
For E-mail updates: 

Friday, June 20, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 11 (Part 1)

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades


TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) +0.3%
TRADE - 10: (Long - 5/16/14 to 5/31/14) = +7.4%

TRADE - 11: 
Bought TNA at 79.5 on 6/19 based on IPm Trade Matrix long trigger. 

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top/Bottom
Trigger: SP500 = 1947, GDOW = 2599
Supporting Indicators: 8/4 Test negated. Uptrend reinstated.  

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 2000
Profit Target 2: 2050

RISK 
Stop: SP500 = -, DJIA = -, GDOW = -
Trailing Stops: SP500 = -, GDOW = -
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 0% (Entry = 1947 , Exit = - , Risk = 0% )
Risk Reason: Ending diagonal pattern.

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.



For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 
For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive
For E-mail updates: 

Thursday, June 19, 2014

TOM exit and IPM Trade Matrix Entry

As mentioned previously, Trade Options Matrix is an experimental product. We got some good returns in the beginning but the market trend was very strong to the upside. Cannot stay with a losing trade on an experimental product. Will exit today. Always enter an experimental trade with a very small position, all in the portfolio was only 4% short.

One reason we stopped taking short trades in an uptrend was because it clouded the vision for the real trade. Real profitable trade right now is the long trade. Even if the market declines, the confusion that this short trade will create will be much more stressful than the long trade.

We will go long on TNA. Will start with a small position 30% and then will keep on adding on any weakness due to Vix sell signal, as current turn window should mark a bottom.

Yesterday's post Fed announcement decline in markets might have been the low. It surely did trigger the buy signal. We remained reluctant because of the short trade. Short trade added murkiness to our long trading vision.

In short, this experiment showed us that once we have a clear bias, we should stay with the IPM trade matrix and not go in to make pennies. Although we might be able to make some pennies, we will lose our vision and clear directional bias. This will make things confusing in the long run.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

FED Meeting & Market Structure

Past 2-3 days have been quite confusing. These days kind of remind me of the days before mid May bottom or early April top. Markets tries to get as many people off its back, before showing its true colors. 

UST's current market trajectory hypothesis for the next few weeks is: Decline, Bottom in the IPM turn window, Rally to new highs.

Since the IPM turn window is supposed to mark a market bottom, the next IPM Trade Matrix trade will be a long trade. Current Trade Option Matrix (with a very small portfolio position) is an experimental short trade and will be covered on the long trade trigger.

As you know, in the first half of the IPM trade matrix trigger levels are conservative and in the 2nd half, trigger is much more aggressive.

Following are the reasons, why it seems logical to expect lower prices before a sharp rally:

Elliott Wave structure: Following chart shows an impulsive decline since June 9 minor top. This decline has been followed by choppy sideways action. Sideways, overlapping wave structure is typically corrective in nature and normally gives way to a sharp decline. In other words, know as a bear flag. Furthermore, rally from mid May bottom was a clear 5 waves. This would require current decline to take 3-wave form. So far, we only have 1 and 2 waves. We still need wave 3 to the downside to complete current correction.



Head and Shoulders: DJIA is showing a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly scale. Once this pattern breaks, it should result in significant selling.


Sentiment: Optimism is prevalent and widely spread among market participants. This could provide fuel for the decline.

IPM Model Turn Window: Latest lows in major US indices were put in outside of IPM turn window. Over the past 4 years, it has been a very rare occurrence to see higher low within IPM turn window, in the absence of Weekly IPM Influence Window (WIIW). Therefore, it is logical to expect lower price levels within the IPM turn window.

In any case, if long trigger is activated, long trade will be entered and shorbecause that is the IPM trade matrix trade, and should be respected.

Sunday, June 15, 2014

Inflection Point Model & Father's Day Discount

Inflection Point Model update will be emailed to subscribers over the weekend. This update highlights the upcoming bottom date. Performance of the Inflection Point Model has been uncannily accurate. Detailed analysis of 95% accurate performance is included in the Research and Timing section.

Latest example is the accurate prediction of May 15 bottom:

May 4, IPM Model update stated:

"Latest IPM model re-run suggests that the next IPM Model turn window is scheduled for May
14, 2014 (+/- 4 days) and according to statistical calculation it should mark a market Bottom."

As we now know, markets bottomed on May 15 at 1862 and then rallied to 1955 in 3 weeks. An astounding 93 SP500 point rally or 5% rally (87% annualized gain).

However, many people who didn't believe in the model, were not able to participate in the sharp rally. For example, following comments were written on the blog on May 20. Unfortunately, these comments could not have been more mistimed, as the market (SP500) was at 1868 at that time. These comments highlight the power of emotions in trading and the importance of the Inflection Point Model, as a mechanism to reduce emotions and introduce a trading system. This emotional power is the reason why many individual traders loose money in the markets:

  1. I hope u were right, but today's market proves u wrong, again! Sorry, I m out~
    Replies
    1. Without IPM turn window information, you are trying to understand calculus using 2nd grade math book.
  2. Or perhaps u may get one or two execuses for your failures
  3. however, successful trades tell everything. We are not your guinea pigs. Don't fool me twice!
  4. With today's 140+ decline, one should reconsider the purchase of your lucky system
  5. the ending diagonal pattern is matured and upside target is limited. I see no reason to put money at risk for only less than 5% successful break up trade. It's your responsibility to protect money for next 10-20% successful trades
  6. More, profit/risk ratio is 3/10, which is less than 1, it's definitely not a good try to enter long position

  7. Above example shows the importance of the Inflection Point Model. As a special Father's day promotion, we are opening only 5 subscription spots at a special discounted price. Please contact subscription.ust@gmail.com for details. Subscription details are located at: Subscription