Thursday, March 6, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 6 (Part 8)

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long) = +9.8%

TRADE - 6: Long
Long TNA at 69.94 ==> 72.75 (added longs) ==> 74.85 (added longs)
Original trade 6 longs were initiated on 2/7/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger. More longs were added on 2/24/14 and 2/26/14.  

When: Outside IPM Turn window. 
Trigger: EW pattern completion. Current pattern suggests that the correction is over or will soon be over. Rally above SP500 = 1851, Global Dow = 2472. Secondary long trigger was triggered on Monday with Ukraine's sell-off.
Supporting Indicators: Up trend, Next IPM turn window is a Top, Next IPM Turn Window is 1-2 weeks away, Rise has been impulsive in nature

Profit Target 1 (SP500): 1908
Profit Target 2 (SP500): No target # 2 on 2nd trade
*TNA profit objectives have been hit. Aggressive trailing stop scenario has been activated to preserve profits.

Stop: Break below SP500 = 1810, DJIA = 16000, GDOW =  2440
Trailing Stops: With TNA profit objectives being met, aggressive trailing stop scenario is now active. Close below SP500 = 1872 , DJIA = 16370, GDOW = 2492
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 0% (Entry = 1850, Exit = 1867, Risk = 0% )
Risk Reason: No significant reason for concern. Market needs to hold critical levels and we will see higher levels  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix): 
  1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  2. Exit all at profit objective 1 because its the 2nd trade with IPM Turn window. 
  3. No Trade in opposite direction
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

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