Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Rally Update & Inflection Point Model

It is by the grace of God that UST presented the following analysis, before it ever happened:

  1. On June 24, 2011: Future Rally & Risk Management!! was published. Market has rallied from 1267 to 1341 since then. 
  2. On June 30, 2011: Market Rally and Upcoming Earnings was published, with a timeline of potential top.

          Since then, market has continued to rally impressively and is now near the possible turn date mentioned in the last post. At this point, I decided to re-run Model 1 & Model 2 of the Inflection Point Models to get a better handle on the next potential market turn point. After re-running the models, following charts and conclusions were achieved. 
Model 1 is suggesting that the next market turn date will be around July 19, 2011 (+/- 4 days), Model 2 is also showing credible activity around that time frame. Therefore, we can have a turn window from July 13 to July 22. Furthermore, according to the last post next week is the Earnings week - many times market turns during this week. Finally, July 13, 2011, also coincides as the date of trend reversal per the symmetric analysis presented earlier.

Now the question remains: What type of pattern will the market trace out over the next few days, which will suggest that we are near a top? I will further analyze the market from Elliott Wave and Market Barometer perspectives to better comprehend the future market trajectory.

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