As mentioned in the last post, last 3.5 years saw doubling of the stock market prices i.e. from 6500 to 13000 (DJIA). Under such circumstances and keeping in mind that humans have a short memory span, it was very difficult to
beat the incumbent President in the Presidential Elections. We can also say that Mitt Romney chose the wrong time to participate in the elections.
Yesterday’s elections were a clear representation of
the optimistic social mood. Everyone knows that the last 2 years have not
resulted in any productive legislation, but even with such a bad record
voters voted to keep the status quo. This voting behavior highlights how people think and how they perceive the stock market as the barometer of the health of the economy. In any case, yesterday's results will have far
reaching implications for the entire
country.
FUNDAMENTAL/POLITICAL ANALYSIS
We all know that during the last 2 years, when House was
occupied by the Republicans and Senate was led by the Democrats, we did not see
anything constructive in Washington. We only saw political point-scoring and
bickering over critical issues like budget. This situation is going to continue
over the near future, which means that nothing significant will be done for the
economy. Thus, we might soon experience the fiscal cliff, sequestration and/or budget
cuts. All of these actions will be detrimental for the economic growth. At the
same time, Democrats will push their agenda for the tax hike which has been a contentious
subject for Wall Street. In short, status quo is a bad omen for the American economic
outlook.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
As far as the stock market is concerned, the optimistic social mood was the key driver behind President Obama’s success. However, as we all know that after a sharp decline, markets typically retrace a big chunk of the initial decline. A similar situation happened in the U.S. markets i.e. after the great crash of 2007-2009 market retraced almost 90% of the decline. The only problem is that this rise was subconsciously attributed to the sitting government, whereas in reality the market rally was not a function of actions performed by the President but was a function of time i.e. it was supposed to happen. In any case, people started feeling optimistic about the market and hence voted for the person, under whose tenure the market bounced back.
As mentioned previously, Voting/War is the final
manifestation of the social mood (happen towards the end e.g. wars typically happen near the end of the bear market). It will be appropriate in Elliott Wave terms to find out after 2
years that the stock market topped in October 2012 (right before the 2012
Presidential Elections, which were won by the incumbent President and soon after
the QE Infinity announcement by the Federal Reserves).
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- Since Elliott Wave analysis measures social mood in terms of the stock market, it is currently suggesting that we are starting a protracted decline phase, given that we do not break above October 5 highs. Detailed Elliott Wave analysis will be presented later.
- Please also note that the Global Dow, unlike DJIA, is well below its April 2011 and March 2012 highs. This divergences between US and global markets, is another very dangerous sign for the market in the near future.
- Finally, completion of the 8/4 test means that we are about to embark on a prolonged downtrend.
- IPM model will help keep you informed of upcoming turn dates, so that one can take advantage of trading opportunities. IPM Model predicted the October top in September and has had an accuracy rate of ~92% over the past 3 years. IPM Model updates are available at subscription.
CONCLUSION
After exhaustive analysis of social mood extremes, future decline potential and market trajectory reasoning, a very interesting conclusion is reached. Details will be provided in the next post. But in short, humans are supernaturally forced to make detrimental decisions, at the most critical junctures of time. And I think we just made one such bad decision (I hope that I am wrong !!)
