IPM Forecast Reviews

After a month of starting the IPM Subscription service, it seems appropriate to review the model's predictions and evaluate them per actual market behavior.

PREDICTIONS SUMMARY

September 16, 2012 – IPM Analysis:

"According to the IPM model, the next turn date is scheduled for October 12, 2012 (+/- 4 days), and this date should correspond to a market top. As we know that markets have risen very sharply recently. This sharp rise has pushed various technical indicators in the overbought region. Since no market goes straight up and the next top date is projected after 4 weeks, market might go sideways for a week or two. This sideways action could start next week."

What Actually Happened?

SP500 touched 1465 on 9/14 and then declined to 1430 over the next couple of weeks ==> 35 point decline

September 30, 2012 – IPM Analysis:

"According to the latest IPM model run, the next turn date is scheduled for October 12, 2012 (+/- 4 days), and this date should correspond to a market top. Since the market has declined over the last two weeks, it has undone some of the over-bought conditions and has reduced excessive optimism. This condition along with the fact that early September rally was accompanied by strong internal market strength, suggests that we are poised for further gains. Next rally would create the necessary market divergences to result in a market top."

What Actually Happened?

9/28/2012:  SP500 = 1436           (Bottom) ==> Rise of 30 points

10/18/2012:  SP500 = 1463         (Top)      ==> Decline of 60 points as of today

This was a truncated top (A classic occurrence at the tops of greater importance)

October 14, 2012 – IPM Analysis (Document will be uploaded in November): 

"It seems like the market has setup itself for a nice rally. With top Fortune 500 companies about to report in the coming 2-3 weeks, it is highly likely that we will some gains. Furthermore, past 4 weeks of sideways market action has undone the over-bought conditions and has reduced excessive optimism. Another scenario to keep in mind is that the market will top out during the latter part of the turn window i.e. by 10/18/12. This will start a sharp decline to new lows and might continue till Nov XX, 2012 turn window."

What Actually Happened?

10/12/2012: SP500 = 1426            (Bottom) ==> Rise of 40 points

10/18/2012: SP500 = 1465            (Top)      ==> Decline of 60 points as of today

11/XX/2012: SP500 =                   (Bottom)

SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION

If interested in these updates, please fill out the form below. 

Package A ($15 / month) :- 1 IPM model report per month. Find out the next turn date (not find out whether it will be a potential top or bottom). Report is sent over the 1st Weekend (Saturday / Sunday) of the month.

Package B ($28 / month) :- 2 IPM model reports per month. First report will highlight the market turn date during the 1st weekend. 2nd report will be sent out over the 3rd weekend of the month with updated model output based on model re-run. Both report will highlight whether the next turn date is expected to be a Top or Bottom.