Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Portfolio Performance

As market rallied over the past week or so, the portfolio declined. As you know the portfolio has a Beta of -0.5 and therefore, it minimizes risk in a down trending market. However, when market rallies, the portfolio doesn't do as well. One of the inherent abilities of this portfolio is to mitigate risk and follow trend.

As a result, if the trend reverses in any of the underlying portfolio components, it will adjust accordingly. Therefore, if the market trend changes from Bear to Bull, we will re-adjust based on proprietary model. This will bring the Beta into positive territory, enabling us to participate in the uptrend.

For now trend remains down. We have been discussing a bear market potential since last August and recent decline has prompted many market gurus to agree with us. However, sharp rally of the past few weeks forced many investors back into the market. But I am afraid it will be too early.

I know it can be nerve wrecking to stand on the sidelines and see the market rally. The problem is that one feels like he/she is missing on great long-term buying opportunity, only to find out that that opportunity was nothing but a bear market rally. Bear market rallies are very sharp and can suck-in many investors.

Therefore, it's best to let the market confirm its direction before jumping in. There are many ways to confirm a trend and I have analyzed following ways very extensively over the past 6 years:

  1. Elliott Waves
  2. Patterns
  3. Technical Analysis
  4. Indicators
  5. Fundamental analysis based on value, CAPE or dividend percentage
  6. Sentiment
  7. Proprietary model
Although these are good techniques and have solid foundation around them, no single method can be regarded as 100% accurate or even close to 100%. Therefore, we decided to automate portfolio allocation and combine above mentioned strategies in an automated algorithm to remove emotional aspects out of investing. So far the portfolio has performed very well.

We are in process of back-testing the portfolio. Will share results over the next few weeks. 

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