Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Extreme Greed

Even though both small caps and Nasdaq are below their recent March highs, its amazing to see extreme greed in the market. This greed is being measured by the put/call ratios 10 day MA and fear greed indicator. This kind of sentiment in conjunction with a mature Elliott wave pattern and approaching IPM model turn window, suggests that we will see a correction in the market very soon.

Here, want to be clear that the correction does not mean a new bear market. But rather a decline to get rid of optimistic extremes from the markets. Stock market's decline and rally symbolize social-sentiment. When this sentiment reaches optimistic extreme, buying power is exhausted. And therefore, potential for further rally is limited.

Right now, we are at a similar point. Once we get a correction, rally will resume. This rally could continue till next weekly IPM window, which is few months away. Therefore, we are in for a long-term rally.

As for the current market, caution is warranted as decline could be sharp. Hypothetical scenario:

  • Decline this week into Monday
  • Rally next week into Fed meeting or Thursday
  • Decline final decline into IPM bottom window
This is just a hypothetical scenario. Trades will be based on IPM trade matrix.

Trade Options Matrix (TOM) - Experimental: Will take an aggressive short trade
Trade Equity Matrix (TEM): Will remain in cash till the bottom and will enter long within IPM bottom window on a trigger.

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