Sunday, May 18, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 10 (Part 4)

Market has gone net sideways for a while, which makes it very difficult to accurately decipher future market action. One thing that we have learnt over the years is forecasting a market beyond next couple of weeks is not a very healthy and accurate exercise. That is why we came up with the IPM turn model, followed by IPM trade matrix.

IPM Model suggests that we are within IPM bottom window. IPM trade matrix has triggered long trades. So in essence, market should move higher for the next few days. There is another IPM turn window coming up (details have been emailed to subscribers). IPM trade matrix will not trigger short until unless, certain criteria is met. Criteria will be shared, if situation evolves into a change of trend type of scenario.

But right now, it seems likely that market wants to move higher and leave many of the people on the sidelines.

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) +0.3%

TRADE - 10: 
Bought TNA at 68.5. More longs were added at 63.5. New Cost Basis: 64.7

When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top
Trigger: SP500 = 1876, GDOW = 2535
Supporting Indicators: 8/4 Test negated. Uptrend reinstated.  

Profit Target 1: 1930
Profit Target 2: -

Stop: New low outside of IPM turn window
Trailing Stops: - 
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: - (Entry = 1879 , Exit = - , Risk = - )
Risk Reason: Ending diagonal pattern.

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

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  1. I hope u were right, but today's market proves u wrong, again! Sorry, I m out~

    1. Without IPM turn window information, you are trying to understand calculus using 2nd grade math book.

  2. Or perhaps u may get one or two execuses for your failures

  3. however, successful trades tell everything. We are not your guinea pigs. Don't fool me twice!

  4. With today's 140+ decline, one should reconsider the purchase of your lucky system

  5. the ending diagonal pattern is matured and upside target is limited. I see no reason to put money at risk for only less than 5% successful break up trade. It's your responsibility to protect money for next 10-20% successful trades

  6. We are looking forward a 20%-100% profit trades, not a 1-3% profit bearing a potential 10% loss!! I hope u can improve.

  7. More, profit/risk ratio is 3/10, which is less than 1, it's definitely not a good try to enter long position

  8. looking into your trading methodology, a fake break up/down can hurt your positions seriously. it's meaningless while u got 5 successful trades with only 15%profit and gone by one 15% loss trade

  9. I agree. You might be right. But if you have the turn date, you can clearly see the top date. Ending diagonal was discussed several weeks ago on this blog. So we were ahead of the game. But in any case, if the market shows a topping behavior in the next few days, trend will change. Right now, its still long.

    Turn date information is completely independent of the Ipm trade matrix. Still long till a sell signal is triggered. Sell levels will be after today's close.


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