Wednesday, April 2, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 7 (Part 8)

Market Overview:
Today market went sideways, and did not trigger any short-term sell signals. This is a very encouraging sign, as market continues to move up without entering over-bought territory. Some other encouraging signs include:
  1. Investors adding shorts into this rally. This shows skepticism over market's rally future. 
  2. No sell signals have been triggered
  3. Although SP500 hit all time new highs today and DJIA is within cents of all-time highs, there was no headlines on CNN, CNBC or any other major news outlet
  4. High Frequency Trading discussion is adding confusion in the mix, which is good for further market rally.
  5. New highs by DJIA will confirm Dow Theory buy signal
All of these are encouraging signs, and indicate that market could continue its rally till daily IPM turn window (already emailed to subscribers). Furthermore, it appears that the weekly IPM turn window (already e-mailed to subscribers) has indeed resulted in a significant turn. 

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%

TRADE - 7: Long
Long TNA at 82.45 ==> 82.1 (added longs on 3/19, 3/20, 3/25, 3/26, 3/27) 
More longs were added based on IPM Turn Window risk reduction. Trade was initiated on 3/18/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger. 
Note: IPM Trade Matrix has been updated and future trades will include a new fail-safe to ensure trade entry near the break-out and reduce uncertainty.    

When: Bottom within IPM Turn Window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top / Bottom 
Trigger: SP500 = 1865, DJIA = 16409, GDOW = 2455 (will be a signal for full long)
Supporting Indicators: Up trend based on 8/4 test

Profit Target 1: 1915-1920
Profit Target 2: 1960
TNA target is separate. It might be hit early. If profit target is hit, aggressive trailing stops will be used & we will discuss it on the blog. 

 New low outside of IPM turn window based on Elliott Wave structure. Provisional Stops: SP500= 1840, GDOW = 2450, DJIA = 16125
Trailing Stops: SP500= 1866, GDOW = 2471, DJIA = 16330
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 0.0% (Entry = 1865 , Exit = 1866 , Risk = 0.0% )
Risk Reason: Geo-political uncertainty. Approaching 1st Quarter results. 

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down (aggressive trailing stops at profit objective)
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 
For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive
For E-mail updates: 


  1. Yesterdays decline was most likely a setup before a sharper rally. Today we have employment numbers on the dock. Based on IPM trade matrix we are still long, and will continue to do so till a sell signal is generated. There is a lot of skepticism about this rally still, which could be good in the intermediate term
    Will update ipm trade matrix over the weekend.

  2. Can you please not tweet Doug Kass?? That SOB is connected and likely made a few phone calls to his buddies to flush the market. The IPM has been uncanny historically and that POS doesn't deserve or need a heads up from you and our group..... jmho.....

    1. The phone calls I'm assuming he made ..... because of your statement to him early Friday about why he not long... we are all guppies here... and with the ipm turn window system , we have a true advantage... make us sharks from guppies... so we can compete with these manipulators. Let's keep this service for the "little guy".

    2. Perhaps a new non-descript twitter handle for subscribers so these fleas are shaken off (fleas = kass, j. Rogers, etc... ). Just a thought.

  3. Thanks Streaker. As you might remember from the last IPM update, there was a minor turn date that I mentioned that I thought was not important in the grand scheme of things. But now it seems like yesterday's decline was the 2nd wave down and filled that date. Right now, I don't have the program with me so I cannot give the exact date. However, market should hold these levels and Monday we should see a reversal. IPM Trade Matrix sell levels should hold.

    I will update the IPM Trade Matrix levels soon. Please note that there are good buy signs and there are no significant sell signals in the market to be alarmed.

  4. dow has been trading below 16330, any updated view on market? still on bull long? I dont think so

  5. Twitter is being updated regularly with market developments. One of the biggest development is the analysis of the facts. facts are ipm turn window is approaching, US markets were sold off sharply over the past few days, but global markets held steady, leading markets are not seeing weakness along with emerging markets. All of this been said, sp500 and djia did decline below critical levels. Oly global Dow managed to hold its own.

    Under this circumstances there are 2 options cash out or wait for a rally, which appears to be setting up till global Dow generates a sell signal. Based on historical analysis, this kind of market behavior takes place once every year. Therefore, we want to nail our trading strategy around these events.

    If market rallies for the next week, with earnings around the corner, we will get a new addition to the IPM trade matrix and which will make the matrix 97% complete as it will encompass almost all possibilities.



I would love to hear from you! Please leave your comment below!!