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This is it ladies and gents. Top is here. I'm glad at stayed short for the past 2 weeks. I'll be loading up a bit more on the rebound today or tomorrow.
Hows the ipm model working brad and joesph? ;)
I've been small in my trading for about a year, but it seems to work reasonably well - even with the amount of clunkyness I have with the limitations on the number of trades I can perform a month and what I can trade, etc.... the IPM works pretty well. I went into the market Friday with 15% SP500, 5% small caps and 10% EFA at the close. I can't trade interday otherwise I would have bought the gap down. But it is what it is. So far this year (since January 2013) I'm up about 2.8%, but for an entire 12 months (since April 2012), 4.7%. A lot of that is because I've been trading small - as in no more than about 30% of my portfilio with 70% in gov. bonds. The easy money has been made in this rally, and has been made for a while, so I've been staying small for a while (and to test the IPM and how I can best trade with it considering the clunkyness and limitations of my 401k, the learning curve as they say). Now - that being said, I expect the next IPM turn window to be the top (I'll be lucky to get 1/2 a percent for my entire portfolio between now and then; but declining into earnings could bring a surprise to the upside) and I'll go back into Bonds and wait out the pullback and anticipated weakness in the second quarter, then see where we go from there (staying disciplined). If the pullback is deeper than anticipated (and I personally think it might be - more along the lines of an 8-11% pullback as opposed to the commonly believed 5%), I will go into the market more (40-50% or more). In other words, the larger the % of pullback, the more I will go into the market % wise with my portfolio. My wife's new company is also starting to gain traction right now and while the reading and learning about markets that I've been doing is for my clunky 401k, I can take this knowlege when we start a SEP as her business turns profitable (and that may be this year), and I can be much more active in trading (abilitly to purchase individual stocks, puts, and calls). Probably more information than anyone wanted to know, but that the current strategy and our use of the IPM. But so far, I work on being patient and let the IPM and the market line up a bit (to where you are comfortable [the +/- 4 days]), and you should do okay. As always, be careful out there! Brad
I took out half of my 401k and transfered to a broker site so i can trade anytime. I'm up around 10% and my 401k 7% up. Now i like taking more risk so if miss a forecast i can be down quickly. Brad, have patience and discipline. We are in a long term bull market. What ever happens in the short term it doesn't matter because we will get new highs later in the months to come. : )
A comparative analysis of March IPM Model will be published on the blog in the next few days to evaluated what was being predicted by the IPM Model on March 15 vs the Financial media and financial Gurus. I hope you will find it interesting and enlightening. Naqvi
What a melt up! Brad
Congrats on catching the meltup. This rally fame right on time has predicted by the IPM model. We will see how long it lasts, but we should approach a pause in the next week or so. Keep in mind the next IPM model turn date will show us a clearer picture once it is mailed over the weekend. Who could have thought that we will hit all time highs after a poor jobs report, except for...Thank you God.
Fyi banks will start reporting on Friday, that could provide further fuel for this rally. We will see.
I actually sold my shorts on a lost and a few gains and i'm out of the markets for now. YTD i still have gains. i'm doing fine. Will wait for the top and bottom to buy.
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