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Monday, April 22, 2013

IPM Model Update has been E-mailed to Subscribers

14 comments:

  1. I bought some Triple ETF's before this rally and got my lost ytd gains back from my previous comments. I feel better now :) But, i think i'm not learning to be cautious. I bought triple short ETFs again to short this uptrend. : )

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    1. The RSI on the short term charts are pointing down. I'm crossing my fingers the decline will come tomorrow or next week.

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  2. Lets see how the IPM Model window works this time around. We are in a dangerous area.

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  3. No kidding we are in a dangerous area but it seems that silver, gold, SPX are all showing MACD buy signs. Of course these can be headfakes and there seems to be more risk to the downside than upside. Good work Joseph for getting your stash back. Be careful out there. Brad

    ps. Abby Doolittle is saying big pullback potential in qtr 2 and 3, see her chart on Stocktwits under her name Abby Doolittle. It is interesting. Would love to hear some comments on it after anyone on this blog takes a looksee. B

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  4. Although I do agree with Abby about the possibility of a large pull back in qt 2, I don't agree with the broadening top formation. I have seen many people use it, but I do not see it as a real formation. This is because, 1- Many times this broadening pattern can continue to broaden for a long period of time. 2- Broadening patterns can transform into elongated up or down trends, thus, reducing their importance.

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    1. Interesting points, I've never heard the counter arguments, but can see how they would make sense. As time goes on, does broadening top formation could actually become sideways consolidation or does it remain anyone's guess which way the market will go? Thanks, Brad

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  5. You are right Brad. I forgot to look at the MACD before shorting this top. I'm hoping it is a top. : ) I only looked up the RSI. Short term wise they are both looking to different directions. Tough call. I bought some more shorts at 1593 and took out all my 401k investments to cash. I'm 8.6% up on my 401k now. In regards to my shorts, i think i'll leave them there even if the markets goes up because i don't think it S&P will go over 1620 so soon. We will see a decline sometime in May. Either a 5% or 10% sometime. Although, i'm I would be scared if the S&P breaks over the all time highs.

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  6. Here is an interesting article about "Sell in May and Go Away" if you read the article, make sure you read it all the way to the bottom. It is very interesting show the trading philosophy of "Buy in October and sell in May" and the results over 60 years. Pretty cool.

    As always, be careful out there, Brad

    http://allstarcharts.com/sell-in-may-and-go-away-2/

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  8. Is anyone viewing this blog anymore? It looks as though the Fed Minutes shook up the markets a bit. The whole idea of weening Wall Street off of easy cash and QE forever gained traction in the Fed's Minutes released after Ben's dovish remarks. It also happened during the IPM window (more downside?). I've heard predictions (we all have), but I think the one that makes the most sense is that we are approaching an intermediate top before a pullback. Who knows how far the pullback will be. This rally has gone a long way very quickly (i.e. the last 250 points in the SP500). Any ideas for a pullback? 5%, 10%, 20%, or maybe a 50% retractment from November lows? As always, be careful out there, Brad

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  9. 5 to 10%. 50% in 2014

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  10. so what happened to this site??

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  11. I don't know, this site seems to have died. I even stopped looking at it daily because there is little to no action (except Joe and I). But I will say this, the standard deviation is was above 2 (it is at 2.5+) and the last time that happened was in 2007 and we all know the drop that followed. I think the same thing will happen. We are in the nose bleed seats and in my view, now is not the time to institute a long position, the easy money was made 18 months ago, and be careful with shorts - the market may consolidate over the summer sideways and you may not hit your short target becasue of the lack of pullback. The last 4 days have shown an increase in volatility and with the swings, is starting to resemble a top. Now, I'm not predicting a darn thing, top or otherwise. I'm in Gov. Bonds now (closest to cash I can be) and I'm more than willing to wait for an entry point to go long (I can't short in my 401k otherwise I'd institute a small short position on SP500). After all of the volatility, I think we will have an entry point that will be much more to my liking as opposed to going long at these heights. Now, those are my thoughts - others think this volatility is consolidation and the market could continue to consolidate sideways until the next bull at the end of the year. So chose your poison, or try another variety, but no one is going to get out of this without some sort of damage - the idea is to limit the damage. Be careful out there, Brad

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    1. Thanks Brad, good stuff!

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