Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Predicted vs. Actual !!!

Market gained 70 points from the November 16 bottom at 1340 to 1410, in about a week i.e. ~5% rally. These returns when normalized for annual returns come out to be 5 * 52 = ~ 250% per year. In other words, it was a sharp rally and took a lot of people by surprise. However, the best part of this rally was that UST subscribers caught most of it.

First of all, I would like to humbly thank God who enabled me to make these accurate predictions through the IPM Model. Secondly, UST team is very excited by the fact that many blog readers benefited from these predictions:
  1. By not being in the market during October-November Market decline
  2. By being long (short-term trade) from Nov 16 bottom

In this post, I will be comparing what was predicted on November 12, 2012 and in October 2012, against what actually happened. Although the predicted market trajectory was just a hypothetical sketch, October/November market action very closely followed the projected trajectory.

What is IPM?
Inflection Point Model is a statistical algorithm which utilizes Signal Processing techniques, along with logarithmic calculations to decompose market data into multi-frequency sinusoids. Frequencies with greatest data influence are then analyzed to identify market turn points. This technique can be implemented on Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frames, to come up with most significant turn dates.

Is it Always Accurate?
I will keep it very short: NO SYSTEM IN THE INVESTING WORLD IS 100% ACCURATE!!          
If I claim 100% accuracy or 2000% returns/year, I will be lying.

I will defer the reviews of the IPM model to blog readers and subscribers, who can write about their experiences with the IPM model in the comments section below. These comments will also help the UST team in improving the model for future.

In the end, if interested in IPM Model Subscription, please fill out the form below. Please note that the latest IPM Model Update was sent to Subscribers on Monday (11/26/2012).

U_S_Thrive  9 days ago

Friday's bottom came on the last day of the IPM turn window. As a result it was predicted that the market will rally into Thanksgiving. For the next few days fiscal cliff fears will be put aside. After that when people will come back from the holidays they will realize that there has not been any progress on the fiscal cliff.. That will be the time to worry. As per Understand, Survive and Thrive, this rally might be a good shorting opportunity.

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