Wednesday, September 4, 2013

September 2013 Trade Strategy

September 2013 Trade Strategy

This strategy is based on IPM Model turn date, TPAP model and current market matrix analysis


  1. Hi Naqvi,

    Okay, the trigger was hit yesterday and I'm going long today. Do you really think there is a possibility of hitting 1740 is Sept.? A new high? I'm using 1638 in the SPX as the IPM window low and my stop. Be careful out there - Brad

    1. On second thought, I'm backing out. There will be better set-ups in the future. I'm sighting interest rates nearing 3%, geopolitical, the market (SPX) rise we had in the last day or two has been due to short covering, machines sold off this a.m. when EMA 20 was touched. I think there is a greater probability to the down side than upside at this point in time. So I'm exercising patience and staying in cash for the time being. Be careful out there, Brad

  2. I agree its a tough decision to buy, and over the next 2 months we might be down. This trade is just for this month I.e. Till next turn window or profit objectives.

    There are numerous headwinds for the market over the next few months including:

    Fed chairman replacement
    Fed taper concerns
    Geopolitical instability
    Debt ceiling issue
    American potential strike on Syria
    3% interest rate

    The way I look at it is that, we should trade market action now with stops. And review the situation at every IPM turn window.

    At the end of the day, i think not loosing money is more important than making some because opportunities will keep on coming if we have monetary and mental capital


  3. That's sort of what I'm thinking. I think we could possibly be up for September, but October and even November can be dangerous with volatile drops. THATS what I'm looking for as an entry point, not buying 4% away from the top. I know price gives us what price gives us, but I may pass on this et-up. that being said, Naqvi, I appreciate the set-up you gave. It gave the trigger for entry, when to cut risk, and when to look to get out. Excellent work! In fact, I'm thinking of just putting my toe in to see what happens, but not 100%, maybe 5% (my 401k is pretty large).

    As always, be careful out there! Brad


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