Saturday, August 31, 2013

Downtrend Confirmed by 8/4 Test

Market just experienced the worst month since May 2012, but sentiment did not reach extreme. Although we did receive some buy signals, panic selling was not recorded. In absence of panic selling, it is hard to say that decline has ended.

At the same time, 8/4 Test (on daily time frame) to the Downside has been completed in multiple markets, including:

  • DJIA
  • SP500
  • Russell 2000 (very close)
  • Global Market Index

This suggests that the trend is now down. Although we are still in a bull market, we should be careful about some acceleration to the downside.

Overall, it is clear that multiple market indicators: 8/4 Test, Sentiment, Elliott Wave, Trend and Supporting Market, are now aligning to indicate that further market decline is in front of us.

Please note that IPM Model turn date has been emailed to subscribers. This update will also include potential trade strategies over the next few weeks.

Note: Understand, Survive and Thrive started predicting about an approaching downtrend since May top because May top coincided with the "Weekly IPM Model" turn date. In the hindsight, that was the time when Real estate index, Emerging markets, Utilities and other front running supporting markets did top out. Therefore, IPM Model has some serious predictive powers by the grace of God

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