The blog has not been updated for the past few weeks because the market has been dull and there has not been much to write about. So I thought I should use this time to complete some other tasks and enjoy the end of summer.
After topping on August 21, 2012 by briefly peaking above 1424, the SP500 has went sideways to down. At the same time, the optimism has remained elevated. This behavior in conjunction with the next IPM turn date and the associated bottom, supports the argument that the market has already topped.
In order for this assumption to hold, market (SP500 and DJIA) should not rise above 1416 and 13175, respectively. Based on the market structure, market should start declining sharply very very soon.
The next IPM turn window is scheduled for the mid of September. Exact date will be published later.