Thursday, May 19, 2011

Novel Market Barometer

Every one wants a one line answer after going over 1000s of indicators, techniques and methodologies, to predict the market's next move. Although there is no holy grail, I have tried to combine my Market Matrix analysis with the probabilistic modelling to come with a neat way of summarizing and quickly evaluating the inherent nature of the market.  
         As a result, Market Barometer came into being. It is an algorithmic combination of the following strategies and analytical techniques, using Market Matrix. 

Market Matrix provides an overall overview of the stock market's internal strength, future projections, trend analysis and rally potential, in one chart. This overview is then run through a combinatorial algorithm based on probability distribution of historical trends, which generates a Market Barometer reading.
          In all respects, this is a proprietary algorithm based on historical analysis of various technical analysis techniques. Furthermore, the combinatorial algorithm will be continuously improved as data dictates. There might be flaws in this model. In this regard, I would appreciate your input to make this tool more useful.
Goal: To identify strong moves (rally or decline), pre-define risk, ride the trend, reduce positions near turn points, re-position using TPAP (Turn Point Action Plan) and identify major psychological changes.


  1. Very interesting, AAII sentiment looks interesting. I greet.

  2. Yes, this is interesting. But not only AAII the put-call ratio is also very high, and people are getting bearish on economic outlook. Also, a lot of bubble talk, which in itself is kindda bullish for stocks (in my opinion)


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