IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 6 (Part 4)

Still Long market. Market is in a trending mode at this point in time. And we could see another rally phase starting very soon.

• Reading > 50: Market is approaching a bottom
• Reading < -50: Market approaching a Top
• -50 < Reading < 50: Market is trending => Current trend per 8/4 test will continue

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long) = +9.8%

TRADE - 6: Long

Long TNA at 69.94 ==> 72.75 (added longs) ==> 74.85 (added longs)

Original trade 6 longs were initiated on 2/7/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger. More longs were added on 2/24/14 and 2/26/14.  

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: Outside IPM Turn window. 
Trigger: EW pattern completion. Current pattern suggests that the correction is over or will soon be over. Rally above SP500 = 1851, Global Dow = 2472
Supporting Indicators: Up trend, Next IPM turn window is a Top, Next IPM Turn Window is 1-2 weeks away, Rise has been impulsive in nature

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1 (SP500): 1908
Profit Target 2 (SP500): No target # 2 on 2nd trade

*TNA profit objectives might be different than SP500


RISK
Stop: Break below SP500 = 1810, DJIA = 16000, GDOW =  2440
Trailing Stops: Will be updated by Friday (2/28)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 2.2% (Entry = 1850, Exit = 1810, Risk = 2.2% )
Risk Reason: No significant reason for concern. Market needs to hold critical levels and we will see higher levels  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit all at profit objective 1 because its the 2nd trade with IPM Turn window. 
3. No Trade in opposite direction
4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: 

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 6 (Part 3)

Market Overview

Over the past few days market has gone sideways. This is encouraging action, as it shows that the market is digesting its gains with time rather than with price. Today, market also triggered a proprietary timing signal (other than IPM Model). According to this signal, market could rise till mid March. This signal is in agreement with the IPM Model turn window. 

IPM Model turn window details have been emailed to subscribers few weeks ago. Latest update will be sent over the coming weekend.

While market is gathering energy for another rally, many prominent market analysts and traders have started to bet against the market. This is the kind of behavior which provides market with fuel necessary to continue its rally. If market does break-out, many people will cover. This will bring automatic bid into the market.

As you might have noticed, 2014 has so far been a very creative year for UST. First, we started publishing IPM Trade Matrix trades (which by the grace of God are doing amazingly well), and now we are developing a unique proprietary Market Barometer. This barometer is a work-in-progress, will be shared on the blog for the next few months and will evolve over time.

One of the goals of this barometer is to allow us to identify market turns through the lens of 12 proprietary indicators and also highlight areas of trending market. 

• Reading > 50: Market is approaching a bottom
• Reading < -50: Market approaching a Top
• -50 < Reading < 50: Market is trending => Current trend per 8/4 test will continue

As per Market Barometer, market is in a trending mode at this point in time. And we could see another rally phase starting very soon.

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long) = +9.8%

TRADE - 6: Long

Long TNA at 69.94 ==> 72.75 (added longs) ==> 74.85 (added longs)

Trade 6 is the continuation of Trade 5's half position and new positions. Trade 6's longs are initiated on 2/24/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger. More longs were added on 2/24/14 and 2/26/14.  

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: Outside IPM Turn window. 
Trigger: EW pattern completion. Current pattern suggests that the correction is over or will soon be over. Rally above SP500 = 1851, Global Dow = 2472
Supporting Indicators: Up trend, Next IPM turn window is a Top, Next IPM Turn Window is 1-2 weeks away, Rise has been impulsive in nature

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1 (SP500): 1908
Profit Target 2 (SP500): No target # 2 on 2nd trade

*TNA profit objectives might be different than SP500


RISK
Stop: Break below SP500 = 1810, DJIA = 16000, GDOW =  2440
Trailing Stops: Will be updated by Friday (2/28)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 2.2% (Entry = 1850, Exit = 1810, Risk = 2.2% )
Risk Reason: No significant reason for concern. Market needs to hold critical levels and we will see higher levels  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit all at profit objective 1 because its the 2nd trade with IPM Turn window. 
3. No Trade in opposite direction
4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: 

Market Barometer - Feb 25, 2014

Market is currently in a trending mode. There is no risk to uptrend. Risk will increase as we move deeper into the red territory.

Regular, fast paced and uncensored updates on Twitter!!!

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 6 (Part 2)

Market Overview

Since the beginning of 2014, market has gone net sideways. On the contrary, IPM Trade Matrix has generated ~33% returns. This is exceptional performance at a time when market was very uncertain. 

Going forward, market looks ripe for further rally. If we see sideways market action, which is very possible, over the next few days, more longs will be added until market hits our stop levels.

Overall, it seems like there is a lot of pessimism in the market, as people are trying to short all-time highs. This might be a good development for the bulls. As bull market likes to climb the "Wall of Worry." 

Alongside IPM Trade Matrix, we are working on implementing this trading technique on options trading and also are in process of developing a proprietary Market Meter. According to latest reading, market is bullish based on long-term and short-term proprietary market analysis tools.

These two developments will be shared on the blog over the next few months.

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long) = +9.8%

TRADE - 6: Long

Long TNA at 69.94 ==> 72.75 (added longs)

Trade 6 is the continuation of Trade 5's half position and new positions. Trade 6's longs are initiated on 2/24/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger. More longs might be added over the next 2-3 days.  

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: Outside IPM Turn window.
Trigger: EW pattern completion. Current pattern suggests that the correction is over or will soon be over. Rally above SP500 = 1851, Global Dow = 2472
Supporting Indicators: Up trend (8/4 did not complete), Next IPM turn window is a Top, Next IPM Turn Window is 1-2 weeks away, Rise has been impulsive in nature

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1 (SP500): 1908
Profit Target 2 (SP500): -

*TNA profit objectives might be different than SP500


RISK
Stop: Break below SP500 = 1805, DJIA = 15900, GDOW =  2435
Trailing Stops: Will be updated by Friday (2/28)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 2.4% (Entry = 1850, Exit = 1805, Risk = 2.4% )
Risk Reason: No significant reason for concern. Market needs to hold critical levels and we will see higher levels  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix. Trade 7 Rules will be updated in the next post): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit all at profit objective 1 because its the 2nd trade with IPM Turn window. 
3. No Trade in opposite direction
4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: 

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 5 (Part 7) & Trade 6 (Part 1)

Trade Overview

Yesterday's market action triggered a profit signal by the IPM Trade Matrix to sell half of the long positions. As mentioned in the last update, once the sell signal was generated IPM Trade Matrix switched to a more aggressive proprietary trailing stop model. The reason for this close trailing stop was 2 fold:

1. If market is entering a 3rd wave rally phase, market will not trigger a sell signal based on trailing stop. As a result, we will be able to ride the market higher.
2. If sell trigger is hit, it would mean that the correction is not over yet and we might see lower prices before new highs.

Since trailing stop was hit yesterday afternoon in SP500 and DJIA, IPM Trade Matrix took profit in half of TNA position. Rule 2 suggests that only 1/2 profit should be taken if proprietary momentum continuation signals are suggesting a continued rally. At this point, we are seeing strong momentum, which suggests that this rally will continue after a brief pause. 

As per IPM Trade Matrix, the next trade will also be a long trade. Therefore, we will use the 2nd half of TNA long position as Trade # 6 and will keep updating trailing stops per IPM Trade Matrix. Worst case stop will be at break-even to ensure 0 loss. New longs will be added if market sets up per IPM Trade Matrix.

   

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 

TRADE - 5: Long

Long TNA at 70 ==> new TNA basis = 69.94 (added more longs) ==> Exited half at 76.66 (TNA's individual profit target was hit earlier on 2/21) ==> 9.8%

TRADE - 6: Long

Long TNA at 69.94

Longs were initiated on 2/11/14 and 2/13/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger (IPM & Elliott Wave structure). 

TRADE CONDITIONS
Condition: Bottom within IPM Turn Window  
Trigger: Rally above SP500 = 1789, DJIA = 15790, Russell 2000 = 111.5, Global Dow = 2401
Supporting Indicators: Up trend (8/4 did not complete), Next IPM can be either Top or Bottom

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 1870
Profit Target 2: 1930

RISK
Stop: Break below 1750 (valid till we are within IPM Turn Window)
Trailing Stops: Break below 1802 (SP500) and 15820 (DJIA)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 0.7% (Entry = 1813, Exit = 1802, Risk = 0.6% )
Risk Reason: There were multiple reasons to be worried. Following reasons have now been taken off the table at least for this trade: 1929 stock market parallel, 8/4 Test to the downside and IPM Bottom window.   

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix. Trade 7 Rules will be updated in the next post): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit half at profit objective 1. Exit full at profit objective 1 if proprietary momentum continuation signals are not present.
3. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: 

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 5 (Part 6)

Market Overview

Recent market actions has been very constructive. Market did pull back a little and then rocketed higher. This suggests that the breadth strength (shown here) is holding strong. 

One interesting aspect of this rally is that there is a lot of suspicion  in people's mind about this rally and its potential. Some are even going to the extent that this rally has been caused by market manipulation. As a result, this rally will come to an abrupt end. Therefore, one should not be long this market. This is the kind of behavior one would expect towards a rally which is climbing a "Wall of Worry". Hence, there is a high possibility that the market will continue its rally to new all-time highs.

From a structural point of view, it seems like market has completed a wave 2 decline and is starting a wave 3 advance (shown below). Wave 3s are strong advances and therefore, this rally could last for a few weeks (till next IPM Turn Window). The only caveat is that there is a possibility of wave 2 not being complete yet. As a result, we might see one more decline next week before wave 3 starts to new highs.

 

If this is a wave 3 advance, we should see a sharp rally from current levels. Therefore per IPM Trade Matrix, we will start using a proprietary closer trailing stop once TNA's 1st profit objective is achieved. This trailing stop will allow us to keep long if we are in Wave 3, and will also get us out of the trade if wave 2 is not over yet. So that we can enter long next week. 

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 

TRADE - 5: Long

Long TNA at 70 ==> new TNA basis = 69.94 (added more longs) 
Longs were initiated on 2/11/14 and 2/13/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger (IPM & Elliott Wave structure). 

TRADE CONDITIONS
Condition: Bottom within IPM Turn Window  
Trigger: Rally above SP500 = 1789, DJIA = 15790, Russell 2000 = 111.5, Global Dow = 2401
Supporting Indicators: Up trend (8/4 did not complete), Next IPM can be either Top or Bottom

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 1870
Profit Target 2: 1930

RISK
Stop: Break below 1750 (valid till we are within IPM Turn Window)
Trailing Stops: Break below 1800 (SP500) and 15820 (DJIA)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 0.7% (Entry = 1813, Exit = 1800, Risk = 0.7% )
Risk Reason: There were multiple reasons to be worried. Following reasons have now been taken off the table at least for this trade: 1929 stock market parallel, 8/4 Test to the downside and IPM Bottom window.   

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix. Following are applicable to the market right now): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit half at profit objective 1. Exit full at profit objective 1 if proprietary momentum continuation signals are not present.
3. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: 

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 5 (Part 5)

Trade Overview

Today's market action was very constructive. While on one hand large caps like DJIA and SP500 absorbed recent gains by going sideways, small caps and tech stocks rallied sharply. This rally in small caps is a very encouraging sign for the broader market rally. Furthermore, breadth during this rally has been very impressive. 

Following chart shows a smoothed Advance/Decline line. According to this chart, market breadth hasn't been this strong in a while. 

Please note that this chart has two implications:

1. We won't enter a new bear market right away i.e. current rally has a ways to go: 1929 comparison should not be taken seriously
2. We might be approaching an overbought area and could see a pull-back over the next couple of weeks.

This chart also confirms IPM Trade Matrix's buy signal. The only difference is that the IPM Trade Matrix generated its signal several days before the breadth jump. Therefore, IPM Trade Matrix is a real-time actionable system with greater profit possibilities. 

Our Elliott Wave structural analysis of the market suggests that the market is in a firm uptrend. We are at least a week away from an intermediate term correction. Please note that this will not be a serious correction. It might just fill-out the right shoulder of the Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern (discussed earlier). IPM Top date has already been e-mailed to subscribers.

As evident from the above chart, market has just completed a sequence of 1s and 2s. As long as the stop levels are not broken (outlined below) we will stay long. If profit objectives for TNA are hit, we will bring our trailing stops closer per IPM Trade Matrix definitions and will let the market decide its next move.

Elliott Wave analysis cannot be completed without sentiment analysis. And current sentiment analysis suggests that we are still not seeing optimism in the market. This is  very good for the health of this rally. We will keep an eye on the stop levels and profit objectives, as we are approaching the end of Trade 5 per IPM Trade Matrix.

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 

TRADE - 5: Long

Long TNA at 70 ==> new TNA basis = 69.94 (added few longs today) 
Longs were initiated on 2/11/14 and 2/13/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger and Elliott Wave structure. More might be added if opportunity comes within IPM turn window. 

TRADE CONDITIONS
Condition: Bottom within IPM Turn Window  
Trigger: Rally above SP500 = 1789, DJIA = 15790, Russell 2000 = 111.5, Global Dow = 2401
Supporting Indicators: Up trend (8/4 did not complete), Next IPM can be either Top/Bottom

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 1870
Profit Target 2: 1930

RISK
Stop: Break below 1750 (valid till we are within IPM Turn Window)
Trailing Stops: Break below 1790 (SP500) and 15780 (DJIA)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.3% (Entry = 1813, Exit = 1790, Risk = 1.3% )
Risk Reason: There are multiple reasons to be worried: 1929 stock market parallel, 8/4 Test to the downside is in process (will be invalid at new highs) - almost invalid, and major IPM Bottom window in process - almost invalid.  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix. Following are applicable to the market right now): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit half at profit objective 1. Exit full at profit objective 1 if proprietary momentum continuation signals are not present.
3. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: 

IPM Model Update & Gold Breakout

IPM Model Update Has Been E-mailed to Subscribers.

IPM Trade Matrix Updates: IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 5 (Part 4)

Gold & Silver are breaking out. There are several reasons to be optimistic about their prospects:

1. 8/4 Test has been completed to the Upside in both Gold and Silver on both dail and weekly time frames. This suggests that the trend has reversed, and we should start looking for upside surprises. 
2. Long-term trend lines have been broken to the upside.
3. Sentiment had reached pessimistic extreme few weeks ago, which was in line with a generation precious metal bottom
4. Bottoming process took its due course which is encouraging for the market
5. Miners have really started out-performing the metal. This is another exciting and encouraging sign.
6. Rally from the bottom has been impressive, and suggests a new trend has started.

Confirmation of a new Bull market will be a rally above 1460 in Gold.

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IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 5 (Part 4)

Market Overview

As market rallies impressively, calls for a significant pull-back and/or an out-right crash are getting louder and louder. These are people who did not buy near the bottom and are bewildered by market's continuous ascent. However, even with this impressive rally no sell signal has been triggered and market is still not over-bought, as measured by proprietary indicators. It is possible that the market might trace out the following structure (Inverted Head and Shoulders) over the next week or two.

If this rally continues for few more days, a longer-term buy signal will be triggered. This signal would mean that market would rally till April/May time frame, with occasional small pull-backs.

Latest IPM Model turn window will be e-mailed to subscribers over the weekend. This window will highlight the next turn date, and will shed some light on to the market future trajectory.

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 

TRADE - 5: Long

Long TNA at 70 ==> new TNA basis = 69.94 (added few longs today) 
Longs were initiated on 2/11/14 and 2/13/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger and Elliott Wave structure. More might be added if opportunity comes within IPM turn window. 

TRADE CONDITIONS
Condition: Bottom within IPM Turn Window 
Trigger: Rally above SP500 = 1789, DJIA = 15790, Russell 2000 = 111.5, Global Dow = 2401
Supporting Indicators: Up trend (8/4 Test has not been completed), Next IPM can be either Top/Bottom

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 1870
Profit Target 2: 1930

RISK
Stop: Break below 1750 (valid till we are within IPM Turn Window)
Trailing Stops: Break below 1780 (SP500) and 15720 (DJIA)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.8% (Entry = 1813 , Exit = 1780 , Risk = 1.8% )
Risk Reason: There are multiple reasons to be worried: 1929 stock market parallel, 8/4 Test to the downside is in process (will be invalid at new highs), and major IPM Bottom window in process.  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix. Following are applicable to the market right now): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit half at profit objective 1. Exit full at profit objective 1 if proprietary momentum continuation signals are not present.
3. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 5 (Part 3)

Market Overview

Today's market action was line with the assumption that markets are in an uptrend. The way market recovered from a bad open, was very impressive. Although sentiment is still pessimistic to a larger extent, which is good for the market going forward, one measure is showing excessive optimism. This could be a sign of near-term weakness. 

Overall, IPM trade matrix is staying long and might add to long positions if there is more dip. Markets might rally upto the 1850-1870 region and then experience a minor pull back. This will be in-line with the overall Elliott Wave structure of the market. As for the risk management part of this trade is concerned, we have identified trailing stop levels for the market. But it STOP level will remain inforce till we come out of the IPM Turn window.

Since a lot of people are still paying a lot of attention to the 1929 analog, it might be good for this rally. On the other hand, Gold is breaking out. At UST, Gold's bottom was predicted in July 2013 and till now that bottom has held. We will see how gold reacts over the next few months, but it could be the start of something big. 

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 

TRADE - 5: Long

Long TNA at 70 ==> new TNA basis = 69.94 (added few longs today) 
Longs were initiated on 2/11/14 and 2/13/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger and Elliott Wave structure. More might be added if opportunity comes within IPM turn window. 

TRADE CONDITIONS
Condition: Bottom within IPM Turn Window 
Trigger: Rally above SP500 = 1789, DJIA = 15790, Russell 2000 = 111.5, Global Dow = 2401
Supporting Indicators: Up trend (8/4 Test has not been completed), Next IPM can be either Top/Bottom

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 1870
Profit Target 2: 1930

RISK
Stop: Break below 1750 (valid till we are within IPM Turn Window)
Trailing Stops: Break below 1780 (SP500) and 15720 (DJIA)
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.8% (Entry = 1813 , Exit = 1780 , Risk = 1.8% )
Risk Reason: There are multiple reasons to be worried: 1929 stock market parallel, 8/4 Test to the downside is in process, and major IPM Bottom window in process.  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix. Following are applicable to the market right now): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit half at profit objective 1. Exit full at profit objective 1 if proprietary momentum continuation signals are not present.
3. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 5 (Part 2)

Markets corrected yesterday (going sideways) and are correcting this morning. This is what we have been expecting - a minor pullback, to setup further rally. If this pull-back continues till the last day of the IPM turn window, IPM Trade Matrix will go leverage long because the risk will be minimized. 

However, at this point, it seems like the market will continue higher and a deeper pull-back will ensue from a higher price level. As along as market can stay above Feb 5 lows, we are in good shape and will most likely see all-time highs.

At the same time, there are certain risks roaming the market and can derail this rally:

1. Debt ceiling issue, which needs to be resolved by Feb 27th (Good progress has been made on the resolution)
2. 1929 analog chart. If true, this chart would mean that the markets are headed for a crash like situation
3. Tapering of the QE. It remains to be seen how will the market react to future tapers.

While on one hand these issues are a source of concern, they have also strengthened the Wall of Worry which Bull markets likes to climb. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how things unfold in the near future. As always, UST's trade decisions will be based on a totally objective IPM Trade Matrix, so that our judgement is not biased by market conditions.   

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 

TRADE - 5: Long

Long TNA at 70  
Longs were initiated on 2/11/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger and Elliott Wave structure 

TRADE CONDITIONS
Condition: Bottom within IPM Turn Window 
Trigger: Rally above SP500 = 1789, DJIA = 15790, Russell 2000 = 111.5, Global Dow = 2401
Supporting Indicators: Up trend (8/4 Test has not been completed), Next IPM can be either Top/Bottom

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 1870
Profit Target 2: 1930

RISK
Stop: Break below 1750
Trailing Stops: Will be identified in 1 week
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 3.5% (Entry = 1813 , Exit = 1750 , Risk = 3.5% )
Risk Reason: There are multiple reasons to be worried: 1929 stock market parallel, 8/4 Test to the downside is in process, and major IPM Bottom window is in process.  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix. Following are applicable to the market right now): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit half at profit objective 1. Exit full at profit objective 1 if proprietary continuation signals are not present.
3. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

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