Monday, December 31, 2012

Happy New Year!!

First, I would like to Thank God for an excellent year. I was given the knowledge by God to navigate these convoluted markets in 2012. And I hope that 2013 will (by the grace of Almighty) be an even better year.

The markets have been very very intriguing over the past few weeks. Fiscal Cliff has captivated the market. As mentioned in the last post, increased optimism in the face of Fiscal Cliff was very dangerous, as people got complacent about the Fiscal cliff resolution.

However, market's decline over the past few sessions has brought back some fear in the market, especially VIX has spiked to a very high level. Market can rally till next IPM Top date.

In the mean time, I am working on following projects to improve or develop new stock market models:

  1. Use of Derivative to pick market tops and bottoms
  2. Using Fourier series analysis to analyze the pattern b/w tops and bottoms, analyzing phase and amplitude of sinusoids
  3. Using Neural Networks to recognize the patterns in the phase and amplitude cycles
  4. Updating, simplifying and automating the Trading Algorithm
  5. Enhancing IPM Turn Window model

These projects will be shared on the blog, as more data becomes available.

In the mean time, I wish all of you a HAPPY NEW YEAR...

Note: As mentioned in the last blog post, IPM Model addendum has been mailed to subscribers.


  1. Is Japan going to rally hard?

    Take a look. Looks like they broke their resistantace level.

  2. Thanks Naqvi, and Happy New Year to you and all on the blog. Sorry Joe, I haven't followed Japan as much but the prognosticators have interesting perspectives of the future, both short and long term for the US markets. I'm currently/still in the EFA ETF (Europe, Far East and Australia) and cash as we enter the new year and I feel more comfortable simply because I think the companies and regions the EFA represent are more stable than the US markets and the volitality created by the koo koos in Congress. I have noticed though that the EFA does bounce around with what comes out of Washington, but I think that the global market is doing the same bouncing. The world is not as "de-coupled" as we might want to think.

    Can anyone on this blog believe that with all this hoopla about the "Fiscal Cliff" and the House of Representative met today from 5:00 to 6:00 to caucus about the Senate's proposal, then went home without a vote? LOL!! Good luck to everyone in the New Year - and be careful out there! Brad

    ps. It was pretty dire what El Elarian said on CNBC today, that economic weakness and continued dysfunctionality will continue to be the "new normal" for the US. This of course will hinder growth, and the Fed can't do it all. Nice LT forecast....

  3. top of the morning to all and happy new year. Nasdaq is rocking this morning. 4.5% up in one day!! I had invested in a triple ETF of Nasdaq and i am 13.5% up today in only one day! This is awesome. But why is SP only 1.5%. Hope SP catches up to the rest of the world. Europe is 2% and more up.


  4. Good job Joseph. Doesn't it feels really nice to catch a rally from the bottom in November, and then staying strong through the month long correction? World markets had already broken out and now U.S. market is catching up. This rally can turn violent, as next IPM turn window is a few weeks away. Today's gap should not be filled!!

    I was going over past blog posts and realized that since Nov 30, 2012 I was continuously stating that we had several sell signals i.e. NYMO, VIX, sentiment. I continued to mention sentiment as a major source of concern, along with VIX as we approached the IPM turn window. And then finally, we saw people leaving the market, market selling-off in late December due to Fiscal Cliff worries.

    This is a classic example of how market gets rid of most of the participants before starting major rally phases. It was also mentioned that since Euro, Emerging Markets and Europe was doing well, U.S. should soon follow. And that is what is happening so far.

    Now the goal should be to manage profits, as we can see sharp gains over the next few sessions.

  5. FYI: Proprietary TRIN buy signal was triggered on Monday. This signal has had a very good track record in the past.

  6. what is your SPY buy on Monday?

  7. Dear anonymous. Trim buy signal on Tuesday is not used to initiate the trade. Its a confirmation signal! This means that Monday's rally was for real. As far as buy points are concerned, UST predicted a bottom in November. Some subscribers are long since 1340. Others went long and then took profits. They again went long in December. December was an accumulation month. IPM model predicted bottom on dec 18 & 21 (+|- 4 working days). furthermore, a special report was sent to subscribers in early December which stated that world markets have entered a bull market and the ensuing rally will be very sharp. Therefore, market is now going to breakout of sideways action. That is what exactly happened. In short, there were many proprietary buy signals generated in December, which suggested that we are are about to break out. And Monday's trim reading was just a confirmation



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