Longs will be added on the trigger. Detailed IPM turn window along with expiration date has been emailed to subs. Market is very confusing right now. There is only one caveat i.e. ending diagonal pattern in DJIA might be completed. This could result in sharp decline. But for now, IPM trade matrix will be going long.
Please note that today's decline was in line with IPM model bottom window. This shows IPM model's timing is still very valid.
IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades
TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25%
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%
TRADE - 7: (Long - 3/18/14 to 4/11/14) = -18.1%
TRADE - 8: (Short - 4/23/14 to 4/28/14) = +11%
TRADE - 9: (Short - 4/30/14 to 5/12/14) = +0.3%
TRADE - 10:
Bought TNA at 68.5. Will buy more on a trigger.
TRADE CONDITIONS
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
When: IPM Model Bottom window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top
Trigger: SP500 = 1876, GDOW = 2535
Supporting Indicators: 8/4 Test negated. Uptrend reinstated.
Trigger: SP500 = 1876, GDOW = 2535
Supporting Indicators: 8/4 Test negated. Uptrend reinstated.
PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: 1930
Profit Target 2: -
RISK
Stop: New low outside of IPM turn window
Trailing Stops: -
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: -
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: - (Entry = 1879 , Exit = 1867 , Risk = 0.6% )
Risk Reason: Ending diagonal pattern.
Applicable Rule:
- Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
- No Trade in opposite direction
- Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.
- Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
- If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window
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You have exit 1867 and yesterday you had exit 1870. Aren't we out? I do not understand this anymore. Why put them out there if we aren't using? Sorry Naqvi - you make this too complicated for me. I'm out.
ReplyDeleteWill be available on twitter today from noon to 1230 pm for questions @survive_thrive
ReplyDeleteAgree with the 1st comment. But the problem is on the blog you dont know the IPM turn window. Rule is that one should stops are hit if new low outside IPM turn window. Therefore, if you know the turn window, u will be able to place effective stops. Stops within the turn window r just for risk mitigation but r not part of IPM trade matrix.
ReplyDeleteBest example, trade 10 is still active. In fact, looking forward to enter further longs on trigger.