If I say market has been confusing for the last 2 months, it will be an understatement. In fact, market has pretty much gone sideways since November last year.
Now we are within IPM bottom window (cannot give exact date when it will expire). Following logic goes into the trade at IPM bottom window.
First is to identify the trend. Trend is clearly up in sp500 djia and global Dow. Small caps are in a downtrend, but majority is not.
Secondly, since the trend is up one must take long trade in an IPM bottom window. We are in a bottom window, so long trade is logical. Now the market has to bottom within the window I.e. It might bottom on the last day (which is a low prob right now). This identification of bottom and long trade is followed by Long trade trigger knowledge.
There are essentially two triggers. One in the 1st 4 days and 2nd during last 4 days. If trigger in the first 4 days is triggered, partial long entry takes place because if higher risk of pull back. Full long takes place in the last 4 days when the risk is minimized due to time and price bounds.
Once trigger takes place and trade is entered, stops r identified based on Elliott wave critical levels and other props. Right now, the stop would be around 1870 in Sp500.
This is all about the trade and there is a potential for adding longs till IPM window expiry. If a new low is made below the low made within IPM turn window, all trades will be exited and we will be on sidelines.
Now subscribers already know that there is another IPM turn window close by. This window has acted differently in different scenarios. In a downtrend, it would have marked a lower high followed by a sharp de:clime. Whereas, in prior uptrends, it has marked continuos rise with high beyond IPM turn window. In any case, we will cross that bridge when we will reach there.
In summary, purpose if this post is to clarify IPM trade matrix's current logic. And how trade is taken based on thorough analysis, rayher than whim. Will keep twitter updated with additional longs.
Now we are within IPM bottom window (cannot give exact date when it will expire). Following logic goes into the trade at IPM bottom window.
First is to identify the trend. Trend is clearly up in sp500 djia and global Dow. Small caps are in a downtrend, but majority is not.
Secondly, since the trend is up one must take long trade in an IPM bottom window. We are in a bottom window, so long trade is logical. Now the market has to bottom within the window I.e. It might bottom on the last day (which is a low prob right now). This identification of bottom and long trade is followed by Long trade trigger knowledge.
There are essentially two triggers. One in the 1st 4 days and 2nd during last 4 days. If trigger in the first 4 days is triggered, partial long entry takes place because if higher risk of pull back. Full long takes place in the last 4 days when the risk is minimized due to time and price bounds.
Once trigger takes place and trade is entered, stops r identified based on Elliott wave critical levels and other props. Right now, the stop would be around 1870 in Sp500.
This is all about the trade and there is a potential for adding longs till IPM window expiry. If a new low is made below the low made within IPM turn window, all trades will be exited and we will be on sidelines.
Now subscribers already know that there is another IPM turn window close by. This window has acted differently in different scenarios. In a downtrend, it would have marked a lower high followed by a sharp de:clime. Whereas, in prior uptrends, it has marked continuos rise with high beyond IPM turn window. In any case, we will cross that bridge when we will reach there.
In summary, purpose if this post is to clarify IPM trade matrix's current logic. And how trade is taken based on thorough analysis, rayher than whim. Will keep twitter updated with additional longs.
Ipm model bottom window is really showing market decline.
ReplyDeleteman, i m really confusing now, so now i should add long positions, right?
ReplyDeleteMy long stopped out at 1870. What do we do now?
ReplyDelete