Monday, March 31, 2014

IPM Trade Matrix - Trade 7 (Part 7)

So far the IPM Trade Matrix has once again held strong. Small Caps really need to take the lead now to support the argument that we have started a substantial rally phase. We will continue to evaluate the market over here and update IPM trade matrix.

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%
TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%
TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%
TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%

TRADE - 7: Long
Long TNA at 82.45 ==> 82.1 (added longs on 3/19, 3/20, 3/25, 3/26, 3/27) 
More longs were added based on IPM Turn Window risk reduction 
Trade was initiated on 3/18/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger. 
Note: IPM Trade Matrix has been updated and future trades will include a new fail-safe to ensure trade entry near the break-out and reduce uncertainty.    

When: Bottom within IPM Turn Window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers
Next IPM Turn Window: Top / Bottom 
Trigger: SP500 = 1865, DJIA = 16409, GDOW = 2455 (will be a signal for full long)
Supporting Indicators: Up trend based on 8/4 test

Profit Target 1: 1915-1920
Profit Target 2: 1960
TNA target is separate. It might be hit early. If profit target is hit, aggressive trailing stops will be used & we will discuss it on the blog. 

 New low outside of IPM turn window based on Elliott Wave structure. Provisional Stops: SP500= 1840, GDOW = 2450, DJIA = 16125
Trailing Stops: SP500= 1852, GDOW = 2463, DJIA = 16300
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 0.7% (Entry = 1865 , Exit = 1852 , Risk = 0.7% )
Risk Reason: Geo-political uncertainty. Approaching 1st Quarter results. 

Applicable Rule: 
  1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down (aggressive trailing stops at profit objective)
  2. No Trade in opposite direction
  3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
  4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
  5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

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1 comment:

  1. Today's market rally continuation taught me that objective market analysis & being honest with readers is very powerful. Writing on a up day is much easier than on a down day because writing on a down day requires a whole lot more courage.


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