Monday, November 11, 2013

Market Overview and Future Direction

I would like to start by thanking God for the accuracy of the IPM Model because "Trying is Human, Result is God."

IPM Model doesn't seize to amaze us with its accuracy. Latest example in this regard was the latest stock market action, as witnessed over last 2 weeks. Without going into much details, the IPM Model not only predicted that a top would occur on 11/1/13, it also predicted the bottom scheduled for 11/11/13. (+/- 4 days)

The most amazing part of this prediction is not the accuracy, but how all the Market Matrix signals came together to generate a buy signal, right around the turn dates. For example, Elliott Wave structure was completed on 11/7/2013 to mark the end of market correction. This structural completion was accompanied by market buy signals. Since this happened in an uptrend, there was no reason to doubt the long-side. This took on even more importance because over the last week a lot of investors and traders started to leave the market because of extreme optimistic readings from newsletter writers.

Since this is not the first time the validity of the IPM Model has been confirmed by the market action, UST team will be publishing 3 White papers to better understand the IPM Model and its history:

  1. Stock Market Timing and IPM Model
  2. IPM Model and Performance Overview
  3. IPM Market Trajectory Library and Trade Matrix

As for the boarder market, recent optimistic extreme does not bode well for the long-terms prospects of the overall stock market. In fact, it is quite possible that market might top-out during the upcoming weekly IPM Model turn date (date emailed to subscribers).

Following chart highlights the Elliott Wave structure of the global stock market index. According to this chart, there are still few rallies left in the market. The question again is: WHEN will it complete? And my guess is that it will be around the upcoming weekly/daily IPM model turn windows.

Recent Posts on the Market Action:

  1. Rally Continuation Target
  2. Elliott Wave Analysis
  3. Implication of Divergence on the Broader Market
  4. Market Topped as Expected. Now What?

Overall, market is getting stretched to the upside and danger signs are appearing:

  1. Extreme optimism
  2. Divergence between U.S. stock market and the housing/real estate sector
  3. Divergence with certain leading markets

We need to evaluate these signs on a regular basis to understand market risk. In the event, it might be pertinent to mention that UST predicted the start of a new bull run in the global stock market in November 2012. Since then we have seen 26% gain in a year and are still in a Bull market. That call was amde possible by a proprietary market analysis technique.

At Understand, Survive and Thrive, we are continuously trying to improve our market analysis techniques and develop new analytic strategies, which can provide edge to the readers. These strategies will be introduced in the near future.

Note: Critical level is Thursday's low!

1 comment:

  1. If there is one thing in this world which is completely unpredictable, I would say, "Market". It changes upside down in 24 hours and if anybody is buying shares on the lame horse then he will be doomed in next 24 hours. That's my experience. Thank you for sharing the information about market trend these days.

    Robert Green


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