Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Fed Minutes on the Horizon

Divergences continue to roam the land. These are dangerous signs. I have been highlighting these for the past month or so. And now the Weekly IPM Model turn window will soon take effect. Therefore, we are entering troubling timing times.

The only things going for the market are seasonality, unfinished market structure and holidays sales. As for the IPM Model daily turn window, one should use it in conjunction with weekly IPM turn window. Please note that daily dates get skewed near weekly turn dates. In other words, we should develop a risk-management mechanism, keeping in mind that risk has increased.

As far as the market structure is concerned, yesterday's market action has clarified the wave count. We are currently in wave 4. This will be followed by another rally. Rally target will be in the low 1800s. This target will be achieved during the daily IPM Model turn window, and will be followed by another correction.

This scenario will be violated if the market declines below 1763, and risk will increase if the market declines below 1773. We will also get Fed's meeting minutes today. So this might be the catalyst, which pushes the market to new highs. We will see...

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