Wednesday, October 9, 2013

September IPM Model Update Review

On September, the IPM Model update predicted the following (Link to Document):

Scenario 1: Market Rises with brief Sideways Action & Tops around 10/7 (High Prob.)
Reasoning: Above mentioned fundamental reasons are very well known. And therefore, many 
people will stay away from the market during this time because market likes to fool the 
majority. Furthermore, wars are typically declared in a bear markets, not near all-time highs. 
Therefore, there is a very high likelihood that no strike will happen against Syria, & markets 
will rise till next earnings period with intermittent periods of sideways action.
Critical Level: Close below 1640 (Friday’s low).

In retrospect, all indices followed this road-map except for DJIA. DJIA had issues with re-configuration of its components. 

September had 4 turn dates (2 major and 2 minor):

TURN WINDOW (AUG 30 +/- 4 DAYS): Marked the Bottom at 1628
TURN WINDOW (SEPT 10 +/- 4 DAYS): Marked the top
TURN WINDOW (SEPT 27 +/- 4 DAYS): Marked the bottom for re-entry purposes in Russell 2000/Nasdaq
TURN WINDOW (OCT 7 +/- 4 DAYS): Marked the Top in Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 

Yesterday's decline was the sharpest decline that we have seen in a while!!

Now the question is, when will this decline end. The answer will be based on the IPM Model Turn Date & the next IPM Turn window status (Top/Bottom) in conjunction with Market Matrix analysis.

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