Market Trajectory & Trade

There are two possible trajectories for the market from IPM Model Turn Window (closest) to IPM Turn Window (next)

1- Bottom ==> Top (sharp rally)

Indicators: Weaker internal negative strength on the decline. No new low after IPM turn window expires.
Suggested Market Behavior: Strong rally after bottoming during IPM Turn window
Trigger: Rise above xxxx
Timing: Market will show its cards during 2nd half of the closest IPM turn window

This scenario could result in multi-week rally from the IPM model turn window


2- Bottom ==> Lower Low ==> Top (sideways to rally)

Indicators: Strong internal negative breadth on the decline. New low after IPM turn window expires.
Suggested Market Behavior: Continued decline immediately after IPM Turn window expiration
Trigger: Rise above xxxx
Timing: Market will show its cards during 2nd half of the closest IPM turn window, which will enable us to asses the negative breadth of the market.

This scenario could result in multi-week sideways action before topping out at the next IPM model turn window

Summary:

Scenario 1 has a higher probability based on Market Matrix analysis. However, we need to wait for a market trigger and keep stop losses in place to minimize losses.