The blog has not been updated for the past few weeks because the market has been dull and there has not been much to write about. So I thought I should use this time to complete some other tasks and enjoy the end of summer.
After topping on August 21, 2012 by briefly peaking above 1424, the SP500 has went sideways to down. At the same time, the optimism has remained elevated. This behavior in conjunction with the next IPM turn date and the associated bottom, supports the argument that the market has already topped.
In order for this assumption to hold, market (SP500 and DJIA) should not rise above 1416 and 13175, respectively. Based on the market structure, market should start declining sharply very very soon.
The next IPM turn window is scheduled for the mid of September. Exact date will be published later.
I have no idea why I'm putting the globe through all this torture - the sideways trading of the market and great anticipation of a sudden decline - with my luck being what it is, I'll throw all of my 401k into equities tomorrow and by Friday we will be at the 20% pullback mark (if not 30%). You can thank me later for ending this mass anticipation while climbing the wall of worry.... (of course I'm kidding). Be REAL careful out there, Brad
ReplyDeleteIPM turn mid September ... sharp decline very very soon. Does that mean you consider 2 weeks very soon ... or we decline into the IPM window?
ReplyDeleteJust wait until the trend is down and when we go under 1360 or so. That's what i would do. JOseph
ReplyDelete