Sunday, September 9, 2012

IPM Update and Future Action Plan

Due to recent software issues, I was unable to run the IPM. Today's run clearly shows that the turn date was scheduled for last week, specifically for September 7, 2012 (+/- 4 days). Based on this observation and the fact that the market was supposed to bottom during the next IPM turn window (mentioned on the blog in August), it is evident that if we had the latest IPM data we would have known that the market will bottom on ECB announcement.

Since the model was not run due to software issues we missed a good trading opportunity. I am upset with this development, as readers of this blog along with me missed a good long entry. Overall, the model has been ~97% accurate in accurately identifying market turn dates since Jan 2011 (when the model was developed). In back testing, the accuracy further increases.

In order to maintain software packages and to provide latest information to readers it has been decided by the UST team that a "IPM Only" subscription service should be started. The subscription will be used for: Updating model, getting software licenses, analyzing future markets like Gold, Oil, Eur/USD  and solving technical issues.


A- One IPM model report per month @ $15/month. This report will highlight the next turn date.
Schedule: 1st Weekend (Saturday / Sunday) of the month.

B- Two IPM model reports per month @ $28/month. First report will highlight the market turn date during the 1st weekend report and will then update the turn date based on re-run with new market data for the 2nd Report. Also, this report will include whether the next turn date is expected to be a Top or Bottom.
Schedule: 1st and 3rd Weekend of the month

Note: Package A data will not highlight whether the next turn date will be a top or bottom.

If interested, please send an e-mail to: . Subscription will start from this month i.e. next IPM turn date will be sent to subscribers next weekend. Subscription payments can be paid via pay pal to .

Please note that although we will try to put out general market analysis on this blog from time to time, IPM turn dates will not be disclosed on the blog.


  1. It is easy for him to update this in retrospect, as we have no way of knowing if his claim of software failure can be taken seriously or is just a last-ditch attempt to salvage credibility in what was clearly a wrong call. Certainly his rhetoric in the past few posts did not seem to be that of someone dealing with software issues. And how come we hadn't heard of this mysterious software failure before?

    Look closely at the advertising for his subscription package at the bottom of each post. It is clear that this site is nothing more than that of a tout intent on stealing away your money with useless technical analysis.

  2. Dear Anonymous,

    I have not touted about the technical analysis done by UST or the past significant calls. But since you have mentioned that this is nothing but useless information, let me bring your attention to the following past calls which are a part UST's history. These calls are only based on IPM turn dates and do not include EW, Market Matrix, trading algorithm, sentiment and 8/4 test analysis.

    To be precise and to show the validity of the IPM model, please refer to the following historical post:

    1- In January 2011 IPM predicted mid Feb 2011 top.
    2- In early March 2011 (after Tsunami), IPM predicted mid March bottom
    3- In early July 2011, IPM suggested mid July top
    4- In Oct 2011, IPM suggested early Nov 2011 top
    5- In March 2012, IPM suggested April top
    6- In May 2012, IPM predicted June 2012 bottom

    7- In July 2012 IPM predicted that the market will top in 2nd week of August and will continue to decline till 2nd week of September 2012. Since model was not re-run for 4 weeks, turn date was not narrowed down. In the hindsight, it is evident that the market went sideways from 2nd week of August (On August 10, 2012 the high for SP500 was 1405) to 1st week of September (on September 5, 2012 the low for SP500 was 1402).

    These examples and several other blog posts suggest that the IPM model has had a very good track record in predicting potential market turns. However, I will also state that no one can say anything with 100% certainty in the stock market. As most of the blog readers know that due to personal busy schedule, the blog has not been updated very frequently. Therefore, it was decided to send the models output to subscribers, so that they may decide how to take action at or near the turn dates.

    Finally, if it were a subscription gimmick we would have done significant marketing, attracted traffic and then launched this service to attract subscribers. Instead, this is a service for only those loyal readers who have been reading this blog for the past 2 years, have seen the actual working value of the model, and want the model to generate outputs on scheduled dates so that they can plan their trading accordingly.

    Thanks again for your comment because it allowed me to better explain the IPM model.

  3. No one can read the market 100%. I think Naqvi has done a lot of good work. In this market business, we all need to learn how to loose and keep up with it until we make great gains. Discipline and research is key.

    I'm selling my ultra short ETF's and going long if we are in a bottom.


  4. Or perhaps 9/13 is the turn down date?

  5. Based on IPM model, September turn date should have marked a bottom. Keeping that in mind and the market action which occurred around Sept 6th, we can come to the conclusion that the market has already bottomed and will head higher for the next few weeks. In this regard, the critical level is 1400. As long as the market stays above 1400, we can see further rise for next few weeks (till next IPM turn date). Next IPM date is projected to bring a top (date will be sent to subscribers over the weekend).

    As we all know that markets can behave irrationally for extended periods of time. Therefore, despite all the current warning signals (internal weakness and complacent investor attitudes), markets might still continue the rise. But keep in mind that when market turns, it could be a very violent move to the downside.


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