IPM Model Update - July 7, 2013

Latest IPM Model Update has been e-mailed to subscribers


Excerpts from Current Report:

Introduction

In the last update it was stated that “based on analysis market should continue its decline for few more days and then put in an intermediate bottom. This bottom will give way to a sharp rebound.” Last IPM Model Turn window started on Monday – June 24, 2013 and the market also bottomed on Monday – June 24, 2013. Market then rallied from 1560 to 1630 (5%) in less than 2 weeks. Both of these developments i.e. market bottom and a sharp rally was predicted in the last IPM Model update.

This accuracy of IPM Model suggests that we should keep an eye on the IPM Model for clues for future market action, especially since earnings season is supposed to start next week.

Analysis

Latest IPM model re-run suggests that IPM Model turn window is scheduled for July XX, 2013 (+/- 4 days), and according to statistical calculations it should mark a market X. 

Based on above data, one can assume that we are in for a rough July. This is because ... 

At this point, it is worth mentioning that the Global Stock Market index has also completed its 8/4 test to the down side on a daily timeframe. Daily “8/4 Test Completion” means that ... Moreover, a decline in the U.S. markets below XXXX (SP500) will trigger the 8/4 Test Sell signal. In this way, U.S. indices will enter a bona-fide downtrend along with Global indices. 

 ...  Overall, a breakdown in the bond market can be catastrophic for the economy. It will choke-off credit and dampen economic activity, which could result in even lower demand for U.S. bonds and trigger Europe like Sovereign Debt Crisis situation.

To summarize  ...