Yesterday U.S. markets made new all-time highs. SP500 flirted with this lofted level for several weeks before breaking it. Although in mid-March we were very close to make new all-time highs, the market situation did not favor a breakout per Understand, Survive and Thrive. At the same time, financial media and blogosphere were very enthusiastic about this breakout. Alas! It never came in March.
Now since we have just cleared these lofty levels, it is an appropriate time to analyze what Financial Media was saying VS Understand, Survive & Thrive’s analysis around March 15, 2013.
News Reports (March 14 - March 17)
- The economy Cheer up – The Economist (March 14)
- Altaira's Ralph Acampora is bullish on stocks' outlook – USA Today (March 17)
- Greenspan: No irrational exuberance, stocks undervalued – CNNMoney (March 15)
- Uh Oh: Mila Kunis Discovers Stocks – Daily Beast (March 15)
- Economy Rolls Along, Despite Cuts and Taxes - New York Times (March 15)
UST’s IPM Model’s Excerpts (March 15)
Following excerpts are taken from the IPM Model update emailed to subscribers on March 15, 2013:
“After 2 weeks of sharp rally (SP500 rallied from 1485 to 1566 and DJIA registered multiple all-time highs), we are now at a point where market is approaching an intermediate top.”
- “This suggests that the market will soon top and then decline to mark a bottom by the end of March.”
- “According to EW analysis, market is completing a 5-wave rise. We are currently in the 5th wave, and the rally is approaching an intermediate-term top.”
- “Supporting markets like Emerging Markets, Euro and Copper are all diverging. This suggests that we are close to a top.”
- “Based on the above technical and fundamental arguments, markets are close to a top.”
- “In summary, Global and U.S. Markets are near an intermediate term top.”
What Really Happened!
- Fear came back into the market from March 17 – April 5: Cyprus, Unemployment data
- Optimism turned into pessimism: Individual investors, blogs, VIX
- Proprietary Buy signals were generated on April 3, 2013
- Market bottomed in the IPM Turn window – April 1, 2013 (+/- 4 days)
- Investors got worried of the upcoming earnings season, which was supposed to be a catalyst for the rally in early March.
I would humbly like to thank God for a successful market prediction. And this is just one prediction in an array of multiple successful predictions.
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