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Thanks Naqvi! Brad
Naqvi (and all), I looked over the IPM model you sent and I have a couple of questions and comments (maybe this will stimulate some conversation on the blog). It seems that the IPM model is saying that there is a higher probability that the next 2-3 weeks could see gains, that the lower probability is at the back end of this IPM turn window (10/18) markets may experience a sharp decline pretty much into the Nov. 9 turn window.I agree that we may see a few days of market gains with the beautiful bounce off the SP500 50 day yesterday but I also think market gains may become limited unless the NASDAQ gets over its 50-Day MA (SMA). With NASDAQ below SMA (bearish sign) and lagging transports, upside may be limited, so if you're long, keep an eye on the NASDQ. If on the other hand the NASDQ gets over its SMA, here is a pretty good possibility that we may see higher highs in both the DOW and SP500.Another thing to watch is the VIX. For this scenerio to work (in my mind), I think the VIX needs to drop to 13 and watch out if it gets above 17. If VIX goes above 17 or 18, we could start to see the market roll over into a steep decline (the lower probability may pan out). Any thoughts? As always, be careful out there... Brad
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