Following is the Road Map that was sent earlier for the month of July.
However, recent IPM model re-run produced very interesting results. Based on the IPM data, the next turn date is not scheduled for end of July. Instead it is scheduled for the 2nd week of August (exact date will be provided later). Therefore, we could see some choppy action through out the month of July.
1- Recent decline could end in a couple of days
2- This decline will be followed by another rally attempt, which should technically stop below 1377.
3- This rally should give way to another decline for few days
4- Finally, we could see the last rally in 2nd week of August.
This rally might coincide with the IPM turn date. Please note that this is a hypothetical market scenario, and will evolve as market structure evolves.
Update: July 18, 2012
We might be on the verge of starting a down-draft till the end of this month. Note that FED FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 31-August 1, 2012. In order for this to materialize, market should stay below 1377 (SP500). There are many reasons to support this analysis based on Market Matrix study.
Update: July 19, 2012
We are so close to the resolution of the direction of the trend that we have narrowed down the market structure to last 2 options:
1- Bearish Case: SP500 should not rise above 1391(1385 also a target) and DJIA should not rise above 13020. The decline should start very soon. There are so many divergences between markets such as Russell, DJT, DJIA and SP500. The decline will be very fast!!
2- If SP500 and DJIA both rise above these 2 levels then it will be better to get out of shorts and look for long setups.
Naqvi, so it is 1377 or 1391 to stop the rally? one day before you said to stay below 1377, but now you change to say 1391? I m confused.
ReplyDeleteNaqvi may be saying the s&p may be creating another wave up to 1391 it's my guess. I, in my case, bought some ultrapro short ETFs today to hope the market will go down tomorrow and the next couple of days. If not i'll wait for the decline in August.
ReplyDeleteMy question to Naqvi is when you say: "The decline will be very fast!!" do you mean this July before the Fed reports? or some where between 2nd week of August.
Joseph
Thanks Joseph. In my understanding, the quick decline should refer to thus July until 2nd week of Aug. After the decline, we shall see the last rally during 2nd week of Aug.
ReplyDeleteI think you are right Nick. Decline this July and rally in 2nd week of August. I got confused when i saw the chart because Naqvi drew up upward arrow for the last week of July.
ReplyDelete