Thursday, January 26, 2012

Hypothetical Market Sketch

1- Market already topped.
2- Market falls into the next turn date and bottoms in the next few days.

3- Market rises for a few days to gather more optimism before topping out within the final 4 days of the next turn window. This top will be followed by a sharper decline. (High Probability)


3- Market continues to rise past the recent high. This would mean that the market has begun a significant rally phase (Low Probability)

Please note that this is just a hypothetical scenario and it will be refined based on the real-time data.
In the next post, few refined IPM analysis concepts will be shared to evaluate the market reaction to future IPM turn dates. 


  1. Hi Naqvi,

    Just so you know, some of us continue to search for and read your analysis. :-) Thanks! Brad

  2. There was an analyst in CNBC who said February was going to loose steam. So, hopefully the first hypothesis is the right one. I will buy only 10% now and wait for the sharp decline so i can buy 30%. 60% I have it in cash. This is my strategy.
    What's ya'll strategy?

  3. I'm as close to cash as possible (government bonds, I'm very limited in my options and how often I can move money around my investments (funds)) but will move into the market (Dow index and SP500 index) after a decline or pull back (like you, about 40% unless I decide to tke on more risk). Brad

  4. I bought a good 30%, from one of my funds, on emerging markets last week. They are cheap now.

  5. When is the next turn window?

  6. Next window is 2/3/2012 (+/- 4 days)


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