Over Analysis and Trading!!!

There has not been any updates because I did not want the market to whipsaw my thinking again. Over analysis is bad for trading. It deviates one from the major theme. Anyways, a detailed update will be sent tonight. 

Over the last several days, market has gone net sideways. Optimism has came back into the market as seen from from Investor Intelligence, Rydex, Vix and options data. Since we are now in an uptrend, shorting will be risky. As you know that the last IPM turn window expired on Monday, I was waiting for a decisive close above Monday's highs before saying that we will start going up. So far, many indices have topped on Monday!!! On the technical indicators side, the market rally has been very week. All of these developments, in conjunction with the fact that the market is testing its 200 DMA forced me to not confuse myself and the readers by over analysis. 

Therefore, we can say that as long as SP500 does not convincingly break above 200 DMA, one should not go long. If it breaks above 200 DMA, one will re-evaluate the wave pattern and time symmetry to identify potential trades.

Please note that the Euro has not risen as sharply as SP500. There is no guarantee of what kind of decision the EU leaders will take this week. But in the long term, Euro is tracing out a very large HS pattern. This pattern will be discussed in the upcoming blog post. If this pattern is completed i.e. Euro declines below 1315, then the target is in low 1.20s. If this happens, it will significantly affect the stock market. 

Note: Does it mean that the charts are showing us that we are on the verge of a collapse???

Anyways, right now might be a good time to short the market on a decline below yesterday's low and keep a stop above 200 DMA i.e. any where from 1270-1273 etc.

Note: Look at how the market collapsed this morning. Over analysis is not good.