Market Overview & Elliott Wave Structure

Today's market action was very interesting. Although the buy trigger was not triggered, market did rally. We are approaching the Fed's FOMC meeting. Markets are typically very choppy near the FOMC meeting. It is likely that Fed will continues its taper. Over the past three meetings, each taper decision has been accompanied by buying the market.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, market's structure since March 7 looks corrective in nature. Following chart shows a clearly impulsive rise in SP500 since Feb 5 bottom till March 7. 

Above chart shows an impulsive rise in a 5-wave format. After completing the 5-wave rally, market started forming an expanded flat with wave-A & wave-B being 3-wave affairs, and wave C being an ending diagonal (shown below).

An interesting aspect of wave-C's ending diagonal is the overlapping structure of the price movement. Over-lapping structure is corrective in nature and should result in a new rally phase.

In order to confirm uptrend, market would have to break above the down-trending trend line and also break above levels defined in IPM Trade Matrix update. Once the trend is confirmed, stop levels will be decided and will help in protecting losses. 

Please note that Elliott Wave analysis is just a supporting mechanism and is not purely used in IPM Trade Matrix. Elliott Wave analysis in conjunction with IPM Turn Window and Market Barometer analysis highlights high probability trades. IPM Trade Matrix trades will be shared on the blog in the first half of 2014.

Twitter will be updated as things take shape.

IPM Trade Matrix's Upcoming Trade

Announcements

Market Barometer Update

IPM Model Update - Emailed to Subscribers

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long - 2/11/14 to 2/22/14) = +9.8%

TRADE - 6: (Long - 2/22/14 to 3/07/14) = +11.7%

TRADE - 7: Long

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: Bottom within IPM Turn Window - Date info e-mailed to subscribers

Next IPM Turn Window: Top / Bottom 
Trigger: SP500 = 1861, DJIA = 16300, GDOW = 2470
Supporting Indicators: Up trend 

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1: Will be determined after the entry
Profit Target 2: - 

RISK
Stop: After trade is triggered
Trailing Stops: - 
Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: N/A (Entry = - , Exit = - , Risk = - )
Risk Reason: -

Applicable Rule: 

1. Sell (1/2) at profit objective 1 to minimize draw-down
2. No Trade in opposite direction
3. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

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For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

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Market Barometer Update

Market Overview and Bullish Undertone

First, sorry for low level of updates as I had to complete a few projects. But now I am done and posts will be regular again.

Setup for a Rally is getting stronger and stronger. We will evaluate the IPM Trade Matrix signals in the next update. Right now, Market Barometer is tilting heavily towards the long side.

Please note that IPM Trade Matrix exited the long trade when SP500 was around 1875. Now the market is back below 1850. Last top was hit during the IPM Top Window, and now we are waiting for the IPM Trade Matrix buy signal during IPM Bottom Window.

Details have been emailed to subscribers about the exact turn dates.

$Gold has broken out. This has been mentioned several times on this blog & twitter (@survive_thrive). It might be a longer term bottom. 

Quick Update

• Gold is breaking out. Gold has been talked about many times on this blog and on twitter.
• Stocks are in correction. Correction could last for few more days
• Busy with work, regular posting will start on Friday.
• Another IPM Trade Matrix trade is approaching
• Will try to keep twitter feed updated tomorrow
• Per bearish EW structure, market should rally for 1-2 more days followed by few days of sharper decline
• Top date per weekly IPM turn window identified. Will be emailed to subs

IPM Trade Matrix & Market Overview

Market Overview

In Process

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

IPM Trade Matrix has been uncannily accurate in 2014 with all but one trade resulting in positive returns. The trade which resulted in negative return was a non-IPM Trade Matrix trade. Cumulatively, IPM Trade Matrix has resulted in 46% gain in just over 2 months. If this performance continues, IPM Trade Matrix will soon double its initial investment.

Please note that there is no guarantee in investing and past performance does not guarantee future returns. In fact, as IPM Trade Matrix keep on logging in positive trades, probability of a negative trade increases. However, the nature of systematic trading is such that you have to take on all trades when signal is generated to maximize chances of long-term gains.

So far IPM Trade Matrix has performed beyond our expectations and there have been suggestions of starting a small-scale fund based on this system. This is just an idea so far, but please feel free to chime in with your inputs about this potential next step. And if you will be interested in something like this in the future?

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long) = +9.8%

TRADE - 6: (Long) = +11.7%

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: 

IPM Trade Matrix Update - Trade 6 (Part 9)

Trade Overview

Would like to start by thanking God for another amazing trade. IPM Trade Matrix has been extremely profitable since its inception.

Trade 6 was exited because aggressive stops were hit on Friday (3/9/14). Stops were hit based on Global Dow. Although there is a potential for higher highs over the next week, IPM Trade Matrix's rule # 5 tells us that if stops are hit and the next IPM turn window is within 1-2 weeks, no trade will be entered.

We will continue to evaluate the market for better understanding of when to enter the next trade.

Regular updates are posted on twitter. They are visible in the right pan:

IPM Trade Matrix 2014 Trades

TRADE - 1: (Long) = +2.6%

TRADE - 2: (Short) = +9.3%

TRADE - 3: (Long) - Non IPM Trade Matrix trade = -0.2%
TRADE - 4: (Short - 1/31/14 to 2/5/14) = +7.25% 
TRADE - 5: (Long) = +9.8%

TRADE - 6: Long

Long TNA at 69.94 ==> 72.75 (added longs) ==> 74.85 (added longs) ==> Exited all at 83.6 ==> +11.7%

Original trade 6 longs were initiated on 2/7/14 based on IPM Trade Matrix Trigger. More longs were added on 2/24/14 and 2/26/14. Exited all on 3/8/14.

TRADE CONDITIONS
When: Outside IPM Turn window. 
Trigger: EW pattern completion. Current pattern suggests that the correction is over or will soon be over. Rally above SP500 = 1851, Global Dow = 2472. Secondary long trigger was triggered on Monday with Ukraine's sell-off.
Supporting Indicators: Up trend, Next IPM turn window is a Top, Next IPM Turn Window is 1-2 weeks away, Rise has been impulsive in nature

PROFIT TARGETS
Profit Target 1 (SP500): 1908
Profit Target 2 (SP500): No target # 2 on 2nd trade

*TNA profit objectives have been hit. Aggressive trailing stop scenario has been activated to preserve profits.


RISK
Stop: Break below SP500 = 1810, DJIA = 16000, GDOW =  2440
Trailing Stops: With TNA profit objectives being met, aggressive trailing stop scenario is now active. Close below SP500 = 1872 , DJIA = 16370, GDOW = 2498  stop was hit

Typical IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 1.5%
Actual IPM Trade Matrix Risk: 0% (Entry = 1850, Exit = 1867, Risk = 0% )
Risk Reason: No significant reason for concern. Market needs to hold critical levels and we will see higher levels  

Applicable Rule (There are 7 Rules in the IPM Trade Matrix): 

1. Do not go long or short without trigger to prevent losses by market moving against you.  
2. Exit all at profit objective 1 because its the 2nd trade with IPM Turn window. 
3. No Trade in opposite direction
4. Observe stop-losses to minimize draw-downs
5. If stops are hit ==> Wait on the sidelines for new opportunity near IPM Turn window

Note: IPM Trade Matrix Trades will be posted in the first half of 2014. This is an experiment to understand and enhance the capabilities of this Matrix.

For Blog updates on Google+ add: Understand Survive Thrive 

For Blog updates on Twitter, add: @survive_thrive

For E-mail updates: